ISIS Defeated in Kobani

By Adnan Khan

In a video released by the pro-ISIS Aamaq News Agency on Fri�day 30 Jan�u�ary 2015, ISIS acknowl�edged that its fight�ers have been defeated in the Syr�ian north�ern town of Kobani.[1] The bat�tle for Kobani which began in late 2014, received much global media atten�tion as over 200,000 Kurds from the town crossed the bor�der into Turkey lead�ing to the call for all Kurds to come to the res�cue. Com�par�isons were made with the Nazi defeat in Stal�in�grad, which was the begin�ning of the end of the Third Reich. Since the ISIS dec�la�ra�tion of the Caliphate back in June 2014, ISIS expanded its con�trol and entered into many bat�tles with rebel groups, al-Assad�s� forces and the US air force. Analysing the loss of Kobani reveals ISIS is now on the defen�sive, but not defeated.

It was in Sep�tem�ber 2014 that ISIS fight�ers cap�tured some 300 Kur�dish vil�lages near Kobani and thrust into the town itself. Tens of thou�sands of refugees spilled across the bor�der into Turkey. By Octo�ber 2014, ISIS con�trol of Kobani was so wide�spread that it even made a pro�pa�ganda video from the town fea�tur�ing a cap�tive British pho�to�jour�nal�ist, John Cantlie, to con�vey its mes�sage that ISIS fight�ers had pushed deep inside despite US-led airstrikes.[2] But after 134 days of fight�ing har�row�ing pho�tographs and video cov�er�age show the dev�as�ta�tion and blood�shed caused by the four-month long battle,[3] today Kobani is in ruins. The bat�tle for Kobani killed some 1,600 peo�ple, includ�ing 1,075 ISIS mem�bers, 459 Kur�dish fight�ers and 32 civil�ians, the Obser�va�tory reported ear�lier in Jan�u�ary 2015.[4] As ISIS relies on pro�pa�ganda to spread �invin�ci�bil�ity,� as a cen�tral ten�ant of its doc�trine, this has been under�mined with the defeat in Kobani.

US airstrikes made the strate�gic dif�fer�ence in the defeat of ISIS in Kobani. In admit�ting defeat, ISIS fight�ers con�firmed in Ara�bic: �the war�planes were bom�bard�ing us night and day. They bom�barded every�thing, even motor�cy�cles, we had to with�draw and the rats advanced.�[5] The US-led air assault began in Syria on Sep�tem�ber 23 2014, with Kobani the tar�get of about a half-dozen airstrikes on aver�age each day. More than 80% of all coali�tion airstrikes in Syria have been in or around the town. At one point in Octo�ber 2014, the US air dropped bun�dles of weapons and med�ical sup�plies for Kur�dish fight�ers � a first in the Syr�ian conflict.[6] Kobani is a small town on the bor�der with Turkey and in the expec�ta�tion of US air strikes ISIS did not con�duct con�cen�trated attacks, which would be ideal tar�gets for US air strikes. But the pic�tures emerg�ing from Kobani show a town flat�tened, with build�ings lay�ing derelict. This would indi�cate the town was bombed heav�ily from the air and in all like�li�hood indis�crim�i�nately. It was this aspect of the bat�tle that appears to have bro�ken the back of ISIS which led to the death of many of its commanders.

The ISIS onslaught of Kobani uni�fied the var�i�ous Kurds into a spir�ited defence of the town. Kur�dish People�s Pro�tec�tion units (YPG) and Free Syr�ian Army fight�ers organ�ised the defence of the town and num�bered in the thou�sands. The mas�sacres con�ducted by ISIS turned Kobani into the Kur�dish �Stal�in�grad,� becom�ing a sym�bol of Kur�dish defi�ance. As a result the Kurds pour�ed resources into the city to resist and repel ISIS. In Octo�ber 2014 the arrival of heav�ily armed Kur�dish pesh�merga fight�ers from Iraq, neu�tralised ISIS� artillery advan�tage, bring�ing key areas of Kobani under Kur�dish con�trol. The defeat in Kobani raises a strate�gic issue, how was ISIS able to defeat more heav�ily armed Iraqi force units in Iraq, repel a force 15 times its size in Mosul, but ulti�mately face defeat in Kobani by a much less capa�ble force. At RO we have long ques�tioned US mil�i�tary strikes in Iraq and in Mosul many com�man�ders have con�firmed they were ordered to leave Mosul rather than repel ISIS. The Kobani defeat shows ISIS is not as capa�ble as it has prop�a�gated and its other high pro�file vic�to�ries are questionable.

From a strate�gic per�spec�tive Kobani was of min�i�mal strate�gic impor�tance to ISIS but it con�tin�ued its repeated and costly attempts to seize the town. Kobani was a severe drain on ISIS resources, depriv�ing them of large num�bers of fight�ers for other areas. When ISIS was being pushed out of Kobani, it was dis�patch�ing fresh recruits with very lit�tle train�ing; some less than 18 years of age. An ISIS vic�tory in Kobani would have had lit�tle oper�a�tional value and an even less effect on the direc�tion of the over�all con�flict in Syria. Seiz�ing the Town would have enabled ISIS fight�ers to shorten the route between the cap�tured bor�der cross�ing towns of Jarab�u�lus and Tal Abyad by not hav�ing to cir�cum�vent Kobani. Strat�for noted that numer�ous ISIS fight�ers recog�nised this fact early on and report�edly sought to pri�ori�tise other bat�tle�fronts but were over�ruled by ISIS com�man�der Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.[7] Even the gains ISIS made in Iraq�s Anbar province were neglected as it sent hun�dreds or thou�sands of fight�ers to Kobani expos�ing them to US airstrikes. By devot�ing dis�pro�por�tion�ate resources and per�son�nel to seize a town of mar�ginal impor�tance, ISIS dis�tracted itself from more press�ing issues in Syria. The ISIS obses�sion with Kobani has now set the group back con�sid�er�ably, gains for sym�bolic rea�sons it greatly pri�ori�tised. This was sim�i�lar to Germany�s dis�as�trous obses�sion with Stal�in�grad in 1942, despite hav�ing already iso�lated and reduced the city to rubble.

ISIS is cur�rently on the defen�sive fac�ing chal�lenges in both iraq and Syria. ISIS is increas�ingly belea�guered as it faces mul�ti�ple dif�fi�cult fronts against rebels, Kur�dish fight�ers and loy�al�ists. Events in Iraq and Kobani has dis�tracted ISIS in Deir el-Zour, allow�ing gov�ern�ment forces to widen their perime�ter and attempt to seize the city. The evolv�ing sit�u�a�tion in Iraq is also increas�ing the demand on ISIS�s lim�ited fight�ers and resources, fur�ther spread�ing the group thin. Coali�tion air power has repeat�edly struck the oil infra�struc�ture con�trolled by ISIS, impact�ing its abil�ity to finance its efforts. Also con�sid�er�able num�ber of reports point to dis�sent within the ranks and from the cit�i�zens forced to live under ISIS rule.[8] For the moment ISIS is on the retreat but it is not defeated, despite the loss of Kobani.

[1] http://news.yahoo.com/fighters-acknowledge-defeat-syrian-town-kobani-133634416.html
[2] http://www.cbsnews.com/news/latest-isis-video-showing-british-hostage-a-departure-from-others/[3] http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/555380/Kobani-Battle-Islamic-State-Jihadists
[4] http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/kurdish-forces-take-back-kobani-from-islamic-state-10003604.html
[5] http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jan/31/isis-kobani-islamic-state-syria
[6] http://time.com/3691108/isis-syria-kobani-defeat/
[7] http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/kobani-ensnares-islamic-state#axzz3H18vJDFo
[8] http://aranews.net/2015/02/islamic-state-executes-prominent-members-planned-coup/