Six best cartoons on BJP's defeat and grand alliance's victory in Bihar: Cartoonists' response to election result

While millions of words have been written on the electoral outcome of the Bihar Assembly poll and the analyses continue, the cartoonists and artists have said it with a few strokes of their pens and brushes.

See these five cartoons that describe the BJP's loss and Nitish Kumar-Lalu Yadav's JDU-RJD-Congress alliance's victory. Clearly, 'Cow and Pakistan' are part of every illustration as BJP had made them a poll issue.

Surendra's cartoon touches the topic of reservation too. Others are by Manjul, Satish Acharya, Shreyas Nevare. The penultimate cartoon was published in Punjab Kesri. All these cartoons are about the results, except the last, which was about the exit polls.

Why Muslims don't want to vote for Congress, not even willing to consider party as second or third option?

(C) INDSCRIBE

After Congress' loss in Haryana and Maharashtra, which was not unexpected, a lot of things were analysed but an important aspect was not mentioned.

I don't see anyone discussing the trend of Muslims' voting pattern--not considering Congress even as second or third option. Did you notice the recent voting trend in Haryana? More than 52% Muslims voted for INLD, 27% to other parties and JUST 16% MUSLIMS voted for Congress in Haryana.

We will delve into the statistics, the trend, reasons and implications too. But do remember that this happened in Haryana, not a state like Maharashtra where Muslims have severe issues with Congress or UP-Bihar.

In states like Haryana, Rajasthan, MP, Karnataka, Himachal Pradesh, Muslims are considered traditional Congress voters. But if just one in six Muslims are voting for the Congress, it is not ordinary.

This is alarming for the party, as even after BJP's victory in Lok Sabha, and the supposed feeling among large sections that Muslims tend to vote for Congress to keep BJP away from power, the minorities didn't vote enthusiastically for Congress.

First, let's see the Muslim majority constituencies in Haryana, from where Muslim contestants got elected to the Assembly. The trend is same at all these seats. It seemed Muslims didn't want to vote for Congress, at all.

FEROZEPUR JHIRKA

In Ferozepur Jhirka, most of the Muslim electorate didn't even think of voting for Congress candidate, who faced the humiliation of coming fifth, after two independents who got more votes than him.

Imagine, this is not UP where there are many parties like SP, BSP, RLD, Peace Party, Ulema Council et al.

Still, such is the situation! INLD's Naseem Ahmed won the seat by securing 40,000 votes.

Independent M Khan came second with 37,000 votes, followed by another independent Aman Ahmed who got 18,000 votes. BJP's Alam too got 16,540 votes. Congress' Azad Mohammad got just 15,943 votes.

PUNAHANA

In Punahana, such was the disenchantment with Congress that its candidate was no where in the race. While Independent Raees Khan got 34,000 votes, INLD's M Ilyas came second with 31,000 votes.

Even BJP's Iqbal Bhai got double the number of votes secured by Congress' Muslim candidate. Iqbal got 25,135 votes while Congress' Subhan Khan got 12,809 votes to come fourth.

NUH

In Nuh, INLD's Zakir Hussain won the election.

He convincingy defeated the Congress candidate, getting more than double the votes polled by him.

Hussain got 64,000 votes whilge Congress' Aftab Ahmed secured merely 31,000 votes.

Clearly, this is a major trend. If it is happening in a state like Haryana, you can imagine, how serious is Muslims' disenchantment with Congress.

Also, we will discuss Maharashtra in later posts. But this is pan-Indian phenomenon. There are several reasons. The two seats to MIM in Maharashtra got excessive focus in the media.

Reality is Muslims will vote for anyone other than Congress--from INLD to SP-BSP, AAP [as in last Delhi elections] or even Independents. It is not about going for a Muslim party because of choice, but because of 'majboori'.

In the surrounding din [MIM win], the trends like the
heightened disenchantment of Muslims with Congress were not analysed properly.


What about Sachar panel, Caste-based reservation demand, prison population!

1. Muslims voted for any party or candidate other than Congress. For the last 10 years, UPA was in government, but did it act on Sachar panel's recommendations. Congress did nothing about the Communal violence bill.

2. The presidential ordinance that bars Muslim and Christian Dalits from reservations was enforced during Congress rule, and despite vehement protests and demands to bring these communities in the ambit of caste reservations, UPA didn't act in 10 years.

3. Did it do anything about the fact that more than 35% inmates in jails in Maharashtra were Muslim, a vast number among them, under-trial prisoners. It gave the impression that it is pro-Muslim, but it shied from taking any step that would be seen as 'appeasement'.

4. It fell in a 'secular trap'. Congress has lost Dalits in UP-Bihar-MP-Chhattisgarh and many other states. It also lost tribal vote. Muslims are now forced to vote for it in exceptional circumstances, only in a few states.

5. They don't at all think of the party in UP. However, Congress refuses to learn. It feels Muslims will keep on voting for it. It forgets that Muslims want nothing, just basic respect and a bit of listening and action on their just demands.

6. The most basic thing is to ensure that there is no communal riot and the expectation that government would take action against those involved in excesses, torture or violation of human rights. On the contrary, there are killings--firing on the chest, riots, and yet, no stern action.

CONGRESS-ruled states were WORSE than BJP-ruled STATES IN tackling COMMUNAL RIOTS, KILLINGS in last couple of years

7. Congress talks of Gujarat carnage, which Muslims haven't forgotten, but it easily forgets that in the last couple of years, the worst killings of Muslims took place during Congress regimes, which haven't been forgotten either.

8. Assam repeatedly burnt and the horrific killings in BTAD, led to nationwide outrage but Congress couldn't stop it timely. No action was taken against Chief Minister. The same had happened earlier in Gopalgarh killings in Rajasthan. No action was taken against CM.

CHECK THIS LINK: ASSAM riots 2010, more than 50 killed

9. In Maharashtra, the Dhule killings, were treated as non-issue by ruling Congress. Just that we can't forget. The issue of non-implementing Sri Krishna panel report of Mumbai riots, has been repeatedly mentioned on this blog.

10. Once again, I would have to say that the situation in Maharashtra was such that Congress' mis-rule have now prepared the Muslims for the worst situations. Jo hoga jhelengu but you go now. In 1992-93, the Mumbai riots were during Congress regime, not Sena-BJP rule.

Lastly, I am not at all a BJP fan. But if you [Congress] are sincere, do introspect, accept your failures and work to ensure for providing a life of safety and dignity to people, who vote to you to power. You feel Muslims have no option, because if they vote for non-Congress candidate, their vote will get wasted.

Ok, we will waste the vote, but won't give it to you*. That's perhaps, lot of us feel today. 

EARLIER POSTS ON THE SAME ISSUE

If you want to understand the context, the reasons for anger,desperation and disgust among Muslims, you should read these posts. 

1. Arrogant, Apathetic Congress bites the dust in Maharashtra

2. An Indian Muslim's letter to Congress leadership: I am not a BJP supporter but glad to see Congress lose

[Percent of Muslims who voted for Congress obtained through CSDS survey. Published in Indian Express.]
[*Congress will get vote when it acts like Congress, work on the ideology of a real centrist party, as per the aspirations of the early leaders. More on this later]

Reasons why Opinion polls can go horribly wrong in predicting election results in India

It is quite easy to make a prediction about results of the election. But the chances that it will come true are little. There are a host of reasons.

First, I will talk about the constituency I live. Here most of the upper caste and middle class population seem to be supporting BJP.

This was before the declaration of candidates. Once the candidate gets declared, the first shocker comes.


They are all speaking the same thing but they won't vote as per their claims of support. The biggest population among Upper Castes* here is that of Brahmins and there is visible [very strong] discontent that neither BJP nor Congress now have any statewide Brahmin leader.

Caste-affect, Candidate-affect

So when Congress fields a Brahmin, suddenly you get to know that the mood has changed. The Brahmins would vote for him, despite supporting BJP or the Chief Minister or the Prime Ministerial candidate. This is just one of the factors which Opinion Polls can't gauge.

Even many of the Muslims praise ruling BJP and its schemes apart from its success in keeping communal riots under check. But many of them would vote for other parties including Congress, Samajwadi Party (SP) and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP).

When a BSP fielded a Kayastha candidate, all the Kayasthas en-bloc voted for him, though the community in the area was otherwise solidly behind BJP. People in India are smart in a different way. They don't speak up. They are not like Americans who are openly liberal or democrat.

People don't often disclose their preference

Here, people hide, conceal, even lie. Sometimes the change of heart comes after declaration of candidate and sometimes just 24 hrs before the voting. Take another example. In Lok Sabha, the main fight was between BJP and Congress.

Even a day ago, the wind was blowing that certain caste groups or sections would vote for one party and the remaining for other. But what happened on the day of voting. Suddenly, the workers handling the booth management appeared anxious. 

From Congress camp, there were signs of worry. The BJP activists were now happy. Reason was that a third candidate, a Muslim who had been fielded on a BSP ticket, was cornering nearly 95,000 votes! In process, he wrecked the chances of Congress candidate.

Last-minute mobilization, local issues or anger against candidate

Who would have imagined it? He got Dalit votes and also Muslim votes. Neither Congress nor poll surveyors had sensed anything. It was not wave. It was last-minute decision. How it happened? It happens in Indian democracy.

Voter doesn't expect personal favour and has just one right. The ordinary man, poor know when to teach an 'arrogant' politician a lesson. They do it. The same happened in Uttar Pradesh polls. The pre-poll surveys said SP would get 140-150 seats but when results came, it had got 224 seats.

Now what's the margin of error? More than 50%. The BSP's voter in cities often says that he will vote for Congress or BJP. Similarly, SP's voter does it also though he may vote for SP. For two decades, the pro-urban bias is reason that these parties always get less seats in opinion polls.

Apart from this, local factors, the accessibility of politician and his really poor performance are reasons that committed party voter even goes against his heart, and votes against him. Further, polls are urban-centric. The surveys are mostly in cities.

Urban-rural divide, failure to take into account mood in far-flung areas 

In rural areas, situation is vastly different. In city, there may be good roads, power and even basic amenities. But do the pollsters go to rural areas and ask the voter. Far from going to villages, these pollsters don't even go to towns [qasbahs].

Majority of people still live in rural India. In such places, often anti-incumbency may work or may not. If the party and CM has done good, but MLA is seen as a man who only benefited his family or kin, there can a mobilisation among electorate to defeat him.

Otherwise, even wave against ruling party may not work, if legislator or Member of Parliament (MP) has done good job. In certain places, there is no road or even a bridge despite demand for five years. In this case, the MLA or MP has to face the anger, come what may the party or CM's goodwill is.

Yet another fact. TV channel walas may claim again and again that there mathematical formula is correct despite the small sample size of 5,000 or 30,000 [to predict mood of 10 million or 100 million], the reality is that in multi-cornered [4-5 candidates' fight], their mathematics just can't work.

When feedbacks forms are filled from selected localities or fudged

There is also making a passing remark that it was conducted by an agency [so that complete onus is not on channel] and that there is a margin of error. By the time elections get over, people don't remember what exactly were the numbers predicted by particular channel.

The so-called team used to get feedback also go the easy way. Many feedback forms are filled by themselves. That's the normal way how things happen. They go to closes places. A few main markets, a few colleges and on the basis of the trend, fill the remaining forms also.

These things happen across India. So when any TV channel tells you that they have done great work and that their opinion poll was perfect and reflects the situation on the ground, just take it with a pinch of salt. After all, we know it. Don't we!!!

So enjoy the Opinion polls. Do hear what the professional 'psephologists' have to say as these programmes are interesting. But don't believe them completely. Do keep a record and let's check when the electorate gives the verdict.

[*If there are 15% Upper Castes--majority among them being Brahmins, who are nearly 10%. Imagine, what the unexpected shift can do in a contest if a 'Sharma Ji' is fielded. That'll make a 20% difference in calculation. These local factors don't reflect in polls. The exit polls or opinion polls work when there is a clear wave, not otherwise]