Extremist group imparting arms training openly in Western UP: Samajwadi Party fails to take action on right-wing extremists' army

A right-wing extremist group is creating an army of youths, who are being given arms' training openly.

The youths are not only trained to use traditional weapons' but are also being taught how to use firearms viz. guns, rifles and pistols.


The organisation claims that its aim is to protect Hindus. It vows to fight terrorist groups. But a parallel force that indoctrinates to such an extent that the members consider all Muslims as enemies, is surely a cause of concern for our country. Isn't it?

Even more serious is the fact that children are attending these camps. These kids are being not only learning how to use weapons but are also being brain-washed.

The organisation is named, 'Hindu Swabhiman'. Read Ankush Vats and Amit Bharadwaj's report in Tehelka Hindi magazine AT THIS LINK

Children who are not even ten year old, are being indoctrinated. 

They are told that the 'Muslims are their enemy'.

This is happening openly. Yet, the police haven't touched these camps as yet.

Forget, intelligence officials, even the local administration seems to have turned a blind eye towards the 'extremist army'.

There has been no action against the group. In fact, local Hindi media, hasn't been critical of them either.

The Samajwadi Party (SP) government that is in power in Uttar Pradesh, hasn't taken any action, even after the report was released. Now, multiple channels and papers have published reports about the organisation.

We fully support tough action on extremist Muslim groups and in the same way, these extremist Hindu organisations should also be dealt with. Else, things may go out of hands. Let'see if Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav takes any action.

Saffron Army: SEE THE VIDEO

Six best cartoons on BJP's defeat and grand alliance's victory in Bihar: Cartoonists' response to election result

While millions of words have been written on the electoral outcome of the Bihar Assembly poll and the analyses continue, the cartoonists and artists have said it with a few strokes of their pens and brushes.

See these five cartoons that describe the BJP's loss and Nitish Kumar-Lalu Yadav's JDU-RJD-Congress alliance's victory. Clearly, 'Cow and Pakistan' are part of every illustration as BJP had made them a poll issue.

Surendra's cartoon touches the topic of reservation too. Others are by Manjul, Satish Acharya, Shreyas Nevare. The penultimate cartoon was published in Punjab Kesri. All these cartoons are about the results, except the last, which was about the exit polls.

No courage to tackle right-wing: Does Congress have the guts to fight RSS, BJP?

Does the Congress have the guts, courage to fight RSS, BJP?  The answer is a clear, no.

United Progressive Alliance (UPA) was in power for ten  years, it could never crackdown on BJP.

The recent CBI raid on Himachal Pradesh's serving chief minister Virbhadra Singh's residence, is just an example.

It is well-known that without official 'go-ahead' from the Centre, such raids on a serving CM can't take place at all, in India. The agencies work under centre.

The raid shows how BJP manages to get agencies work for it. On the other hand, Congress was in power for 10 yrs, yet it could never get even a single tough action against Narendra Modi-led BJP government in Gujarat, then.

Even CBI officers who were probing Godhra case were known to be soft on Modi. When you run government, you have the power but you need to exercise it. 

Congress had neither the will, nor the courage to do it. 
BJP and RSS leaders were scared when right-wing terror modules were caught. 

Yet, it was Congress that seemed fearful to take action against Sangh leaders and NIA took years to even investigate and file charge-sheets. Convictions couldn't take place and BJP government took seat in Delhi. 

Now the case are being weakened. The Congress has always shown this kind of approach while dealing with the right-wing, and now it is facing existential crisis. Today, the result is that party is reduced to 40 seats.

If you have to fight RSS, show some courage. Will they learn now? No, it doesn't seem so. Congress doesn't have the courage and conviction to do it.

In Karnataka, it cowers in front of Ram Sene and other Hindutva groups.

In fact, either it is the communal situation in Mangalore in Karnataka or the ban on Sanatan Sanstha, it (Congress) has always been exposed. 

It can't take on right-wing forces and the right-wing elements that are active within the party. It is time for Rahul Gandhi and Congress to realise that there is no scope for such a party that functions in such a manner. 

Eyes on Muslim population in Bihar: Will 1.75 crore Muslims tilt the balance in 2015 Assembly election?

As the crucial election for Bihar assembly approaches, the focus is on the Muslim electorate in the state.

The question is will Bihar Muslims solidly support the Nitish Kumar-led JDU-RJD coalition.

Or will Asaduddin Owaisi's entry into the state would lead to polarisation on communal lines.

Owaisi has targeted Seemanchal, a backward region that has a huge Muslim population, for his rally.

MIM's entry has energised a section of Muslim youth. There is a chance that in Seemanchal, there will be an affect on JDU-RJD's prospects because of Majlis. The possibility is that it will not only divide Muslim but will also lead to consolidation of BJP's core vote?


Bihar has over 1.75 crore Muslims, accounting for 17% population in State

Bihar has the third highest population of Muslims in the country, after Uttar Pradesh (UP) and Bengal (in numbers, not percentage). While UP has over 4 crore Muslims and Bengal has 2.45 crore Muslims.

As per 2011 census, population of  Bihar was 10.41 crore. The percentage of Muslims as per the latest census (religious figures released only a few months ago), the percentage was around 16.9 (roughly 17).

Till now, it was believed that Muslims would vote en bloc for the RJD-JDU-Congress coalition.

Hence, it was felt that their vote would not be divided unlike past when minorities' votes were divided between Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad Yadav's Rashtriya Janata Dal.

But, jointly, JDU-RJD-Congress have a support of over 50% electorate--at least, on paper.

It gives them the edge, as reflected in opinion polls too. However, the coming few weeks would determine if the 'secular forces' would take off or lose steam.

The BJP campaign is led by none other than Prime Minister Narendra Modi. He is using his oratory and his tested skills to capture the imagination of the Biharis. A few more weeks and we will find out whom Bihar electorate hand over reins of the State.

Arrogant, apathetic Congress bites the dust in Maharashtra, finally

The rout that had begun with Congress' losing to Narendra Modi-led BJP in the general elections, continues. The party has lost Maharashtra and Haryana.

The writing was clear on the wall. People were fed up with the party and its arrogant leaders. The disdain towards the people.

Who could forgive the ruling alliance whose leaders can say, 'Shall I urinate in dams to fill them, if there is not enough water".

Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar had said this when he was told that a farmer was sitting on fast for 55 days, demanding water for irrigation. [See link: Should I urinate to fill the dams?] Such language, such arrogance. And you expect people to vote for you! He was not alone.

The body language, the way the party leaders behaved--it was all nauseating. From late Vilasrao Deshmukh to Ashok Chavan, either it was the controversial tour to Taj Hotel post 9/11 with movie-wallahs or the corruption in Adarsh society, they showed extreme callousness towards people.

Some people talk about Prithviraj Chavan's supposedly clean image. But he too failed to rise to the occasion whenever he was needed to speak, intervene or act. Remember the death of techie Mohsin Sadiq Sheikh! [Link: No public condemnation from CM]

The image was not just that of a corrupt but also an insensitive, inactive government. Clearly, people had enough of this government, and for too long. But the loss of Maharashtra will hurt Congress at the national level, as the state elected Congress consistently, since independence.

It has been after several successive terms that the party has finally been voted out of power here. 

The BJP was the alliance partner when Shiv Sena had formed the government in Maharashtra in 1995.

But this is the first time that the BJP has got such a mandate in Maharashtra. It has fallen short of majority but is now in a position to form the government. The emergence of All India Majlis Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) shows how Muslims had lost faith in Congress-NCP alliance.

In fact, Muslims voted for AIMIM and SP, wherever its candidates had a slight chance. 

After all, Congress in Maharashtra had acted in a bizarre manner for over a decade. It ruled arrogantly and cared least for the most basic demands of the community.

Forget the charge of appeasement, the party didn't care the least for Muslims. They probably felt that Muslims have no other option, and hence, they would vote for Congress anyhow. Muslims number around 10-11% in Maharashtra, but the number of Muslims lodged in jails in state, hovered between 35-40%. All this happened during this regime.

Indifference, Injustice

Illegal detentions, midnight swoops were conducted routinely. [See link: Mumbrai midnight raid and humilitation] There was hardly any action in cases of blatant human rights violation and tortures in police custody. The killing of a software professional in Pune, didn't stir the government.

Just because media has taken congisance of the hate crime, there was some activity later. Still, the promise of job to the victim's family didn't materialise. Dhule firing in which innocent persons were shot at point blank range, was treated as a routine incident. [Link: Dhule firing and killings]

In fact, whenever there were atrocities on Muslims or other backward sections, the Congress government wasn't seen taking a tough action, anywhere. To many people, it was bizarre, as they believed Congress to be pro-Muslim.

Lies, broken promises on implementing Srikrishna Commission report [Mumbai riots]

They forgot that this party and its chief minister Sudhakarrao Naik was at the helm, when nearly 2,000 people were killed in Mumbai riots in 1992-93. The Sri Krishna Commission indicted politicians and top police officers for the massacre.

But despite promising that the panel's recommendations will be implemented, the party went back on its promise. Never, it appeared to be intending to take any action. Probably because their own men were involved in the massacre.

What else could be the reason for shielding them. Not IPS officers, even constables who fired on those praying in the mosque, were saved, at every step. The lies, broken promises, the extreme indifference of the government towards minority issues, was simply unbelievable.

[See link: Congress government's apathy regarding minorities, on justice with Mumbai riot victims]

Putting obstacles in releasing youths framed in Malegaon blast case

In courts, at every step, administration and prosecution tried to put obstacles in the process to to release those Muslim youths who had been implicated falsely by investigating agencies earlier. It was state-sponsored communalism at its best.

In fact, the Congress regime had made it so tough that probably Muslims can brave any other regime in Maharashtra. The bureaucracy didn't work. It was a perennial problem for students of Urdu medium schools that they never got textbooks on time.

The truth is that if one starts remembering the grievances, there is no end. It was same for Dalits, Backwards, other communities too. The administration was going from bad to worse. Can a government get even worse than this? I doubt.  

Secularism, the biggest joke

The biggest joke was that it was a 'secular government'. All of us have seen how secular they were all these years. And with elections over, the 'secular' NCP was the first to extend outside support to the 'un-secular Shiv Sena'.

Some ask me, you don't understand, it's BJP victory. No, for me it is Congress loss, finally. If you are a slave to any party for decades, its your choice. Can you tell me the steps they took for your uplift or any other positive contribution.

Losing an election doesn't mean the end of the world. Let's see, in opposition, what they will do. How many of these leaders will go to streets, work among people, raise their issues, and help them in sorting out their problems. Still you can mourn, its your right. I feel better with their rout.

Good riddance.

Should India support Palestine or Israel: Ten hard facts on India's international stand and foreign policy in the light of its national interests and realpolitik

[This post has been written after Indian government voted in support of Palestine, inviting criticism from pro-Israel ideologues who thought BJP government would change its policy]

1. India is seen as a responsible nation world over, government has to be careful of its standing too while voting at UN or other fora, can't go by wishes of individuals. 

2. On TV debates, right-wing panelists say that 'Arabs never supported India'. So? Who asks to support them? Must ditch 'em, if needed. Who stops!

3. India is already doing business with Israel. We get lot of oil from Arab countries. Millions of Indians live in Gulf and send foreign currency here. This is never mentioned in TV debates. In fact, there are more Indians (60 lakh) in Arab countries than in USA and Britain together (45 lakh). 

What are the stakes for us to suddenly turn our back on these countries? Of course, if you simply love Israel because it kills Arabs or Palestinians [read Muslims], then let us talk straight, don't beat the bush [strategic interests, yes we know]. On channels you talk of real-politik and sermonise that we must keep our interests supreme, rather than going for 'passion' or becoming 'world guru, then friends, these are real interests.

4. The only difference is that Arab countries don't claim credit and aren't interested much in PR in India. The NRIs in these countries are mostly from South India, and the North Indian-media glosses over it. 

5. Indian Muslims are with national interest. The expectation or support is on humanitarian grounds. Government should strike balance, use diplomacy and see its interests. If needed, stand with any country, who stops the Viraat government? Don't play politics on us, using our names. 

6. During nuclear deal issue also, it was suggested that Indian Muslims wer against it though it was the biggest lie http://www.anindianmuslim.com/2008/07/indian-muslims-stand-on-nuclear-deal.html  

7. Then, there is another argument, 'how can we vote along with Pakistan on the same issue'. This is the reflection of the mentality, 'If your enemy is doing the right thing, you should do the wrong thing just because it is your enemy'. So if Pakistan goes on to vote for saving girl child at an international forum, will India oppose it? 

8. Truth is that only one country was against the vote for probe on war crimes. It was USA which patronises Israel. Many other countries who have major disputes among themselves, voted in favour. We are not in a position to be Israel's patron, do we want to look like its lackey, and reduce ourself to such level without any genuine benefit. 

9. Some journos and self-styled ideologues who think they were behind BJP and Modi's victory, feel they know more about national interests than Govt! Surely, Narendra Modi government knows what is in India's interests.

10. But it doesn't mean that your love for Israel, outgrows your love for your own country and the respect of your nation and its standing. Gaza killings are surely not an humanitarian issue for you, but tell us the real strategic reason, you want India to shift its international position?

Right now, the disgusting tweets that show their love for Israel, more than India, are revealing exactly the same: That sections of right-wing are so obssesed with Israel and are anti-Muslim to such an extent, that they are disowning the BJP government which they considered their own till days ago.


[This post has been written after the outrage by many self-styled strategic affairs experts and 'super patriots', who felt that India under Narendra Modi, shouldn't have voted to censure Israel at BRICS and opposed its vote on UNHRC probe for war crimes against Israel]

Read the post on 'Indians support Palestine despite propaganda' HERE
Read the post 'Irony for Israel: The world calls it a Nazi state, even Jews opposing Israel' HERE
Read the post 'Jews suffered genocide, now commit similar atrocities on Palestinians' HERE

Reluctant politician: Congress scion Rahul Gandhi and his failure to take centre-stage in politics after travelling in Mumbai local train four years ago

Rahul travelled in local train in Mumbai despite Sena warning but thereafter... 

(C) INDSCRIBE

After the Congress' defeat in the Lok Sabha elections, it is natural that the party leaders, especially, the roles of Sonia Gandhi and her son Rahul Gandhi, would come under criticism.

But more than the Congress' poor performance, it is the reluctant leadership of Rahul Gandhi, which is truly astonishing.

A look at Rahul's career graph as a politician, one gets perplexed that how he seems to have lost his way, all of a sudden.

FLASHBACK: Barely four years ago, Rahul Gandhi had struck a chord with a large number of people, when in the midst of the 'local Vs outsider' controversy in Maharashtra, he made a surprising appearance in Mumbai.

The Shiv Sena had warned him against coming to the the city, after his 'Mumbai for all Indians' remark. Though he was shown black flags, Rahul reached the city and travelled in the local train. Not just Biharis, people from Uttar Pradesh (UP) too were being beaten up in cities in Maharashtra. Rahul Gandhi took a stand.

Like an ordinary citizen, he travelled in the train, without the strong security. In fact, he had gone to an ATM, withdrawn the money, and then bought the ticket for himself. Though there were strong voices even then, about his being 'young', 'inexperienced' and 'playing politics' and the one whose sole qualification was to be 'born in the Nehru-Gandhi family', his act suggested that he understood politics.

Showed signs of leadership, political maturity once

In fact, not just North Indians, youngsters in Mumbai also lauded him. Girls had flocked to see him and there was a euphoria. Even his critics said that without speaking or replying to Shiv Sena/MNS leaders' statements, his visit was bold and he had successfully made a statement.

This was after UPA had won the election in 2009. Rahul Gandhi had talked passionately about Kalawati in the Parliament. BJP leaders weren't too impressed. He was visiting the houses of Dalits too. Clearly, BSP wasn't impressed. However, it was all having an effect.

In fact, Rahul Gandhi appeared emerging as a mature politician, who seemed to have a conviction, and who wanted to talk about the ordinary Indian citizen. Surprisingly, just when he was coming of age, and the public was beginning to like him, he lost the connect.

Losing connect with the citizens, avoiding media

We didn't see similar boldness in the next couple of years. In 2011, Sonia Gandhi fell ill and rushed to America for treatment. But we didn't see Rahul Gandhi take up the centre-stage or speak his mind. Even as there were scams after scams, what we saw was Congress' spokespersons, but not Rahul.

Either it was the Delhi gang rape or the Anna Hazare's movement, Rahul Gandhi didn't show up in public. There was no out of the box initiative or street-smartness.The 'Mumbai local train episode' was history. What we heard about Rahul Gandhi was that he had his coterie and that he was busy revamping the party.

It was commonly repeated that he wanted leaders to be more accountable, and hence there was stress on inter-party democracy [elections for post of office-bearers etc]. True, but what about the leader himself? Not just the public, he also avoided the media. Why?

No more taking up causes or steps for corrective measures

While Prime Minister Manmohan Singh was never known to be an orator, the failure of Sonia Gandhi and Rahul to speak on important issues, was felt everywhere.

No wonder, jokes about dynasty scion who was party leader just because of virtue of his birth, flooded social media. People in India aren't averse to dynasty rule, as it happens in regional politics too, but one has to do something after getting the post.

There was not a single attempt to redress any of the grievances of the Muslims. However, all the BJP's demands were accepted hurriedly [including Afzal's hanging], so that there was 'no backlash'. Dalits were also forgotten. There wasn't anything positive for the farmers in Vidarbha or the poor in Bundelkhand.

Rahul Gandhi wasn't behaving as a politician at all. You can't keep on getting votes all your life for UPA's flag-ship schemes that were launched a decade ago. Neither inclusive schemes, nor exclusive appeals for castes or groups were visible now. 

It is a big mystery how and why Rahul Gandhi acted in this strange way. Tearing apart the ordinance on convicted politicians, as late, as in 2013, wasn't enough. And once again after this show of anger and attitude, it was back to square one. Silence.

Reclusive: Neither on the ground, nor in the social media

Rahul was reclusive and reluctant. After having enough experience in politics, he should have learnt to act on his gut feeling and acted as a responsible politician. But he appeared lost and out of scene when he was expected to speak his mind.

While BJP leaders were active on Facebook and Twitter, Congress had few politicians who understood social media, except Shashi Tharoor. Narendra Modi got millions of followers on Twitter but Rahul had no account on the website.

Even after the party's loss, we haven't heard him enough. He is not likely to take the role of the party leader in Lok Sabha too. That is all too strange, after all, he got everything on his platter. Why he did it? Why he does it? No one knows it, except Rahul Gandhi.

READ the earlier post, 'Letter To Congress leadership from an Indian Muslim'. CLICK
READ, another post on 'Congress failure to highlights UPA's achievements and its poor campaign vis-a-vis BJP publicity blitz'. CLICK

[PHOTO courtesy NDTV. Link to NDTV report. 'Rahul snubs sena, takes Mumbai local', here]

Tilak, Topi in Indian politics: People don't want Hindu politicians to wear skullcap or Muslim leaders to sport 'tilak' or perform Puja

(C) Indscribe

Media often takes up the issue of Narendra Modi not wearing a 'topi' [skullcap]. I don't think it is an issue at all.

Do you think those who oppose him would have a change of heart, if he wears the topi! Still, on TV & social media, this issue is raised time and again.

Amid conversation with Muslim friends, this topic often came up. Not a single Muslim I met, ever said that he expects or wants Modi to wear the topi.

Why should it be expected? In fact, the person who offered him topi shouldn't have done it. Citizens want the politician to be honest and work, rather than do such gestures. People on the street are more smart than journos believe them to be.

Another interesting aspect is that many people write that while Hindus are expected to wear topi, Muslims don't do anything like that? Arrey bhai, this is no secularism. Just for the sake of information, I should tell you that Muslims not just sport 'tilak' but many politicians have even done puja.

So? How many Hindu leaders perform Namaz? Is this a debate at all? Muslims remember how PV Narasimharao spoke in chaste Urdu on TV just after 'allowing' the demolition of Babri Masjid, and even promising that he would rebuild the masjid again at the same spot.

LK Advani is seen covered in green cloth at Ajmer shrine but don't we remember his Rath Yatra? They do it for reasons they know best. 

Topi is no Islamic symbol though it has become one in India. In Arab, even in mosques you don't need to cover your head, during prayers.

In India, media image of Muslims is that of a person who is wearing the skullcap. Till a few decades back, it used to be the Turkish cap.

But in India, we have a unique culture. Hindus and Muslims, despite their perceived differences, attend each others' programmes and even religious events.

Prominent persons are invited at such places, and to offer respect, the person is either offered 'headgear', made to wear 'saafa', or 'tilak' applied on forehead. This doesn't mean everything should be seen as Communal Vs Secular or Hindu Vs Muslim.

Section of media splashes the pictures to create CONTROVERSY and then seeks others' opinion to get TRP. Though this is a non-issue. When Mamata Bannerji covers her head, the photo is seen as 'interesting' and gets published. Lalu Yadav, Mulayam and even Atal Bihari Vajpayee were seen wearing topi at iftaar. 

Muslim politicians with 'tilak' are common to see at any event. In fact, Muslim leaders often go to temples and even pray.

Yes, they do it too, despite all allegations of Muslims being more rigid. Do Hindus expect them to do it? No. Only a fool will call it appeasement. And no one forces them to do it either.

While passing the area, the leader feels that he should go to the temple, he goes. Nobody prevails upon the neta to do that or even bow head before God or Goddess.

I know many Muslims who have no objection getting a 'tilak' on their forehead. But some may not because they don't have Hindu friends from childhood.

Similarly, many Hindus easily go to mosque or dargah while some don't, again, because these Hindus didn't have close Muslim friends early in the life. You can't judge people over these issues. All these gestures are more about your personal feelings.

A person does it also because of his society, his childhood friends and his/her engagement with people in his/her area.

A person or politician may not resort to such gestures but at the same time he could be many times more honest and just.

In fact, those who talk about such things, probably, have never lived in the real India, and have no idea about the strength of Hindu-Muslim bonding at the ground level.

As I start thinking, I can recall many more politicians doing such acts. It is their personal choice. They often do it to respect others sentiments. It is not right to say that they are fooling us. 

Would you call these acts as 'Hindu Tushtikaran' or 'Hindu Appeasement'. Of course, not. We are a diverse country of multiple faiths and overlapping cultural practices.

Don't we all remember, how Samajwadi Party MLA Chaudhary Bashir was attacked by a section of clerics for Puja at Hanuman temple in Agra. 

And MUSLIM LEAGUE's leader Cherkulam Abdullah went to mutt and sported vermilion [tilak] on his head, leading to a controversy.

There is no dearth of such incidents. We are a unique society. It can't be judged from British, American or any other point of view. We are a nation of 1.2 billion persons. There will be many trivial incidents every day and at the same time there will be many great events too.

Depends, what you track, what you see, what you are shown and what you want to believe.

MORAL of the Story

Those in media who feel that Muslim with tilak is doing 'Hindu tushtikaran' or Hindu wearing topi is 'Muslim appeasement' are not too much far from those who think India is just a land of snake charmers and yogis. Or you perhaps had most interaction with the 'Other' on just social media and internet. 

Get a life, yaar.

Check these links if you want to read more

1. Photograph of Tariq Anwar sporting the 'tilak' courtesy The Hindu

2. Shazia Ilmi's photographs at Bhaskar's website

3. Muslim MLA condemned for puja at Hanuman temple Times of India

4. Last photo courtesy Business Insider [Rajesh Kumar Singh]

5. Muslim League Minister Cherkulam Abdullah sported tilak Link
6. Atal Bihari Vajpayee's photo wearing topi. Courtesy S Arneja [Frontline]

Why was Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi so angry over Sabir Ali's induction in BJP!

After former Janata Dal (U) leader Sabir Ali joined BJP, there was a near-hysteric reaction from Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi.

Naqvi, who is the vice-president of the BJP, tweeted about Sabir Ali's 'terrorist' connection.

He inferred that if things continue this way, then Dawood [Ibrahim] may also be allowed to join the party.

It was surprising as Naqvi, 56, has rarely reacted with such intensity before. With his reaction, he publicly embarrassed the party too.

So what was the reason? Was it a feeling of insecurity that prompted him to target the party leadership for induction of Sabir Ali. Naqvi is the most prominent face of the Bharatiya Janta Party (BJP).

The party has had tremendous difficulty finding 'Muslim faces' in the past. That he belonged to UP, once the most polarised state during the Ram Mandir movement, was an advantage to him and the BJP too gave him enough importance.

When no Muslim leader worth his salt associated himself with it, Naqvi was a proud BJP worker.
Muslims openly expressed their dislike for the man who was in BJP when its leaders [Kalyan Singh, Vinay Katiyar, Uma Bharti] were more harsh on minorities and less 'polished' than today's BJP.

Once he managed to win from Rampur Loksabha constituency too. The second Muslim face, Shahnawaz Khan, who has represented Kishanganj (Bihar) in the Lok Sabha, is much junior. It is only a few years back that Najma Heptullah joined the party.

More Muslim leaders began joining the BJP. MJ Akbar is the latest entrant. For long, Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi enjoyed a unique position in the party. He was regarded and rewarded by the party. Even for the RSS, the dhoti-clad, Mukhtar, who often sported tilak on forehead, was quite close to the ideal Muslim as per their definition.

But now, with the purported Narendra Modi wave, and when there is a feeling that BJP may emerge as the largest party and form the government, everyone is flocking towards the party. Sabir Ali may not be a big leader but he is quite articulate, even speaks English and has a 'rustic charm', as certain BJP leaders said.

Also, Ali at least has some support among a section of Muslims in Bihar. Clearly, Naqvi must have felt insecure. For decades, he worked hard, faced all sort of criticism and condemnation, even abuses from members of the community, and when the party appears close to forming the government at the Centre, all these guys who have made no sacrifices, are joining the party & stealing the limelight!

They may also become contenders in the hierarchy, as senior office-bearers or even ministers. Isn't it unjust? A friend remarked, 'Mehnat kare Murgi, Anda Khaye faqir'. No wonder, Mukhtar was so much upset that he shot off the tweet. We do understand your pain, Mukhtar Bhai. We really do. Aap logo.n ka kya khyaal hai?

Religion as a factor in Indian elections: Muslim, Sikh, Christian majority seats and constituencies that elect Upper Caste Hindu candidates

With elections round the corner, newspapers have again focused on factors like caste, community and religion, which do affect the choice of candidates as well as voting in polls in India.

Dainik Bhaskar, a leading Hindi newspaper, has come out with an interesting report on page 1.

The report tells us about how certain seats are perceived as 'Muslim seats', 'Sikh seats' or Upper Caste Hindu seats.

Most of these are constituencies that have large percent of voters of the group.

We all know that the religious or caste affiliation of the voter and the contestants do matter to some extent.

Sometimes the constituency may not have the particular group as majority or a block.

Yet, it is seen as the constituency where candidate belonging to that group is given ticket and wins easily. Interestingly, while focus is often on Muslim votes, because of a myth that Muslims vote 'en bloc'. In election season, such reports come too often. Journalists seem to enjoy filing such reports and discussing them.

But this report interestingly talks of Savarnas vote [Upper caste Hindu population] too. It says that though the Upper Caste aren't a numerical majority in most seats, still, they command wide influence and around 125 constituencies regularly send Upper Caste contestants to the Parliament.

125 Upper Caste influence constituencies or 'Savarna Seats'

The report says that Lucknow may have a large Muslim population and also strong Shia populace, but most of the parties always fielded Upper Caste candidates from here. Either Shivrajwati Nehru, Hemwanti Nandan Bahuguna or Sheela Kaul who won thrice and later, former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee who won five times from here.

It also lists Indore as an 'Upper Caste' seat from where 'savarnas' have been winning for 45 years. Then, there is Allahabad constituency, that elected Pt Jawaharlal Nehru, Lal Bahadur Shastri, Murli Manohar Joshi, Amitabh Bachchan, VP Singh and Revti Rama Singh, all upper caste Hindus.

It lists 36 seats in Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala and Tamil Nadu, where only Upper Caste candidates win. While Punjab has 32% Dalits, more than half  of the seats in the state are cornered by the Upper Castes.

The 'Upper caste' seats often have a strong Muslim population too but no party risks fielding Muslim here.

There are 172 constituencies that have Muslim, Sikh and Christian influence.
Really!

But in the 125 upper caste seats, the factor of religion doesn't work, it says.

There are 79 constituencies reserved for Scheduled Castes (SC) and 42 for Scheduled Tribes (ST) out of 543* (545) seats in the Lok Sabha. Of  course, Dalits (SCs) and Tribals (STs) can contest from un-reserved seats too.

So out of the remaining 432 seats, Bhaskar has identified seats that have a trend of winnability among a particular religion or a group. Many places have huge backward (OBC) population too but there isn't focus on their voting and election pattern.

Muslim vote can tilt balance in 92 constituencies 

The report says that 92 constituencies have Muslim influence. There are many constituencies in Kashmir, Kerala, UP and West Bengal that have 65-95% Muslims.  Then, there are constituencies like Laccadives, Kishanganj (Bihar), Hyderabad (Andhra Pradesh) too.

The example is Assam's Dhubri where Muslim candidates win. AUDF's Badruddin Ajmal contested and won from here, defeating the Congress. Over all, seats that have more than 20% Muslims are included in list where the minority swing can make or mar candidates' chances.

An interesting example is Araria seat in Bihar. Now, Araria has 41% Muslim population. Yet, seven Muslims were in the fray, and hence BJP's Pradeep Kumar Singh, won Loktantrik Janshakti Party's Zakir Husain by a margin of 2,000 votes. Of these 92 seats, most of them are in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Assam, West Bengal and Kerala, apart from J&K.

16 seats have Christian electorate's influence

There are 16  seats that have Christian influence. An example is Ernakulum in Kerala that has 38.8% Christian vote or South Goa. Then, there are many constituencies in North East and some other places in central and eastern India where Christian vote is decisive.

The Christian candidates win from Nagaland, Mizoram and Manipur. Also, there are pockets in certain regions of South Indian states like Tamil Nadu and Karnataka. In a few constituencies in Jharkhand, Orissa and Chhattisgarh, too they have limited impact. 

Sikhs are a major factor in 16 constituencies

Also, there are 16 seats where Sikhs are an important factor and decide outcome of the election results, like Bathinda that has over 75% Sikh voter. Sikhs are mostly concentrated in Punjab-Haryana region in North India.

The other seats include Amritsar 77%,  Sangrur 74%, Jalandhar 38%, Ludhiana 58%, Anandpur Sahib 57%, Fatehgarh Sahib 58%, Firozpur 51%, Patiala 55%, Gurdaspur 44%, Hoshiarpur 39%. Also, there are constituencies liek Chandigarh, Sirsa (Haryana) and Sri Ganga Nagar (Rajasthan).

FOR THE READERS:

Now, that you have seen these trends and statistics, there is a message for you. You don't need to blindly believe every 'fact'. Anything can happen in election. It is not purely religious or regional line on which a person votes always. With polls barely two months from now, you will see analyses and more reports.

See more on elections 2014 in upcoming posts.

[Report published on March 10, 2014. Link to Dainik Bhaskar's Epaper. See page 1 and with graphic on inside page of the same day's edition, if they remain in archive. Alternative text link is HERE]

[*India's lower house of parliament, the Lok Sabha has 545 members, 543 of them are elected while two are nominated]

How media turned Nitish Kumar from hero to villain within months!

Just refresh your memory and you will recall how Nitish Kumar was the darling of media, till just a few months ago.

Whenever there was a mention of the Bihar chief minister, the word 'Sushasan' or 'Good Governance' was used to describe his achievements.

It was routinely said that he had brought a turnaround in Bihar, from the era of Lalu Prasad Yadav's 'jungle raj'.

After Lalu was ousted from the power by the JDU-BJP combine, Nitish Kumar was seen as a true leader, a man who was changing Bihar.

It was said that crime rate had come down in Bihar, development was again visible and the mafia had been brought under control. The backward Bihar was now a progressive state, we were told.

Those who don't live in the State, obviously, have no idea about the ground realities, and are dependent on media to understand the 'change'.

In fact, there was so much positive news about Bihar, that we even heard how advertisements were being given to newspapers, in order to get good coverage. Negative stories were not being reported at all.  If it was happening, it wasn't good either.

Remember how Forbesganj firing was totally blacked out from media. Now within the last few months, ever since, he had a fallout with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Nitish Kumar is no longer the 'Vikas Purush'. All positive coverage has gone away.

No longer, we hear the word 'Sushasan Kumar'. In fact, there are reports now that the law-and-order situation is bad. Really! The 63-year-old leader who comes from the JP movement, just like his bete noire RJD's Lalu Yadav, is now miffed with media.

In a function, a bitter Nitish Kumar asked the photographer that why was he taking the photographs, when they won't be published them in the newspaper.This is in sharp contrast to the earlier situation when Nitish Kumar got excessive coverage.

In fact, a section was uncomfortable, and felt that due to huge money in the form of Ads, the TV channels and newspaper in Bihar, have 'sold themselves out'. [media bhi business hai bhai]

Now JDU leaders rue that the media no longer gives them coverage as it is in the hands of BJP. In India, media is largely independent, despite the political affiliations of the owners of the media houses.

Lot of people outside Bihar wonder how it is happening so fast. What is the true picture? Something is surely amiss here.

With Mukesh Ambani's growing stakes in media houses, it is suspected that there is growing influence of owners on journalists.

In news rooms, there is a clear order that stories against BJP's future PM wouldn't be telecast. But to say, that Nitish Kumar has been blacked out just because his opposition to Narendra Modi and the JDU's severing ties with BJP in Bihar, is almost unbelievable. Is it that the media has been swept away by the 'Modi wave'?

For eight years, he was doing everything right. Even eight months ago, he was doing great. He was looked at as a statesman and was positioned as the future Prime Minister. However, it is a fact that Nitish Kumar is no longer a favourite among media men.

How this 'hero' to 'zero' transition took place! It is not a great mystery. But the change in coverage does have impact on people who don't belong to Bihar and live outside the state. Without firsthand experience or information about whether things are improving or they have worsened, they are at loss to understand such a transformation in media views.

What's the reality. And the mystery behind the change in image! Just a few more months and we will know.

Salman Khan meets Narendra Modi, sets social media ablaze: Of rights, wrongs and expectations...

The moment reports about Bollywood star Salman Khan's meeting with Narendra Modi, started appearing on Tuesday afternoon, social networking sites were flooded with comments.

It was inferred that he had endorsed the latter for the post of PM. Khan didn't say directly about who should be the Prime Minister. 

But said that God would decide the best man and then also pointed at Modi, saying that "there is a good man standing amongst us". 

The middle-aged star also had lunch with Modi. The Gujarat chief minister also tweeted about his meeting with Salman. 

Many Muslims seemed upset with Khan, who had recently gone to Saifai despite criticism that while riot victims were denied relief, the Chief Minister was having fun with Bollywood actors. 

While Alia Bhatt, had apologised and her father Mahesh Bhatt said that it was the failure of his upbringing that she went to participate in the event. Khan had defended the decision then also. There were sarcastic comments from different sides and that how film stars can go anywhere to dance, if they are offered money. 

Now many of his fans are hurt. There are angry posts and even cartoons mocking Khan. Even in the post-partition era, the most idealistic stars who were staunch communists, didn't lead the kind of life which they propagated. 

Among stars, Salman Khan has a very strong appeal among Muslim youths. He is the person whose posters with skullcap on his head, are seen in Muslim localities. In coming days, there could be protests on the streets in different cities. 

The effigies may also be burnt. Perhaps, the fans, have a right, to be upset. But isn't it irrational to expect that you star will always be politically correct and always behave in accordance with your affiliations and expectations.

There were posts on Facebook that how could Salman Khan meet Modi? After 1992-93 Mumbai riots, who had stopped meeting Congress leaders or the then Chief Minister Sudhakar Rao Naik, though more people were killed in those riots than Gujarat 2002.

The billionaire stars act in politically correct manner just because they tend to avoid controversies. It is not about taking stand or not taking stand. Salman Khan's act may anger his Muslim fans, but it can also boost his image among his hardliner right-wing fans. 

The criticism is that if celebrities, especially, the Muslims, keep meeting Modi, then it will give credibility to the latter. May be, such things slowly and steadily have an impact. The fear among certain sections is that the anti-Modi stance will get diluted. 

Many 'secular Hindus' were also upset with his 'endorsement of Modi'. But why? If he is a Muslim he is supposed to be anti-Modi? There is no logic in it. Then, all Hindus should be pro-Modi. But the biggest opponents of Modi are Hindus, aren't they? 

Either we talk in terms of activism, legal fraternity, political class or police officers, majority of those opposing him are not Muslims. Similarly, to expect that Muslims are monolithic to such an extent that everybody is expected to act in the same manner is absurd.

Why should we expect that Salman Khan or any other celebrity will take a stand. There is no surprise. With general elections a few months from now, we will see such occurrences and 'controversies' on a regular basis.

Link:
1. Report on IBN about Salman Khan-Narendra Modi meet
2. Sudhakarrao Naik and Congress' role in Mumbai riots

BJP honours Muzaffarnagar riot-tainted leaders: Should a national party stoop so low?

For a party that has ruled India, and aspires to rule it once again, it was definitely a cheap act.

Felicitating the party MLAs who are facing charges of incitement during Muzaffarnagar riots, doesn't behove a forward looking national party.

But the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has just done the indefensible. The Congress, BJP CPM, BSP are all different parties because their ideologies are different.

It is understandable. But when a party openly felicitates such politicians, it doesn't set a good example. The BJP wants to position itself as India's party for the future.

Such actions won't help the BJP. Perhaps, it may get a few extra votes through polarisation in the region through its appeasement of the rogue and fanatic right-wing elements. 

But in process it has lost much more. Though there was criticism, the party went ahead with its plan. It was immoral, indecent and unbecoming of a 'responsible' party to act in such a manner. The MLAs--Sangeet Som and Suresh Rana, were garlanded.

They were presented the traditional head gears and were felicitated. Som is accused of fanning communal hatred through internet by uploading a fake video [belonging to another country]. Even after the arrest, one of the legislators was accused of updating his Facebook page from jail, and putting up objectionable material.

A complaint in this regard has also been filed with the police. How can the party take moral high ground over Congress or any other party.

Time and again BJP attempts to take the proper CENTRE-OF-RIGHT position but then it again drifts towards the LOONY RIGHT wing.

Indeed, the party crossed the laxman rekha. It is lucky though in the sense that media hasn't been too harsh over the party over it. 

Shouldn't Muslims support Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), try it once?

The Assembly elections are round the corner and recent poll surveys suggested that Arvind Kejriwal's Aam Aadmi Praty (AAP) was now a serious contender in Delhi.

Though the AAP doesn't have a major presence in other states, success in Delhi, will boost the morale of the party.

In in the initial period [post Anna movement], there wasn't much enthusiasm among Muslims, regarding the AAP. It seems the mood is changing now. Finally, a lot of Muslims are now talking positively about the party.

AAP has certainly made a difference in the way campaigns were conducted in Delhi in the past. Also, the party leaders seem to be more open and clean. It will be a positive change if Muslims see an alternative in AAP. For decades, Muslims supported Congress and what have they got in return?

ALTERNATIVE TO CONGRESS AND BJP

The Sachar panel report revealed the truth about Muslims' socio-economic backwardness. But, years after the recommendations, what has the Congress done about it? Similarly, there is no implementation of reports on communal riots.

Still, Congress acts in such a way that BJP manages to get the arsenal to attack Muslims, and term it as a party that indulges in 'appeasement' Muslims. The trouble with BJP is that it says that its different but its cadre & members of its allied organisations have no love lost for the minorities.

If there is genuine issue of Muslim youths framed or innocent youths booked under harsh laws, the BJP leaders don't even pause and think once but straight want even harsh treatment. Okay, don't 'appease', but at least, avoid targeting or harassing the minorities. Can the BJP do it on a national level?

They are torn between their ideology and the needs of the politics. This differs state to state, leader to leader, CM to CM. So what's the option? The ordinary Muslim, just like the ordinary Indian, expects little from politicians.

ANTI-CORRUPTION PLANK STRIKES CHORD WITH CITIZENS

What we want is that they won't rob our money, avoid scams, stay away from hooliganism, extortion and work for ensuring transparency in the system.

Even basic demands like improving condition of Urdu medium schools in Delhi or opening dispensaries, ensuring hygienic drinking water & electricity, fell on deaf ears. So, it is understandable that there are murmurs for change among Muslims.

n this regard, some of the AAP leaders do appear to be different and have clean image. The anti-corruption plank naturally appeals to all sections. The AAP deserves to be given a chance. It will help strengthen our democracy also. [Link to Arvind Kejriwal's letter to Muslims]

The fact that there are just two big mainstream parties at the national level--Congress and BJP. Both these parties refuse to change, fail to reinvent and many of their leaders have institutionalised corruption. Isn't this reason enough for electorate to support a third alternative.

ENTRY OF NEW PARTY WILL MAKE DEMOCRACY MORE VIBRANT

In the beginning, there were also reservations among some sections about AAP's stand on certain issues like AAP's stand vis-a-vis reservations for Dalits/SCs/STs. Some persons with dubious credentials are no longer with the party. Hopefully, with party growing in strength, its leaders will make their stand clearer.

If sections of Muslims switch to AAP's fold, it can surely change the complexion of Assembly in Delhi. No group, community or individual should become a slave to any party. There should not be any compulsion to keep voting for a party election after election.

The political system has become stagnant and hence the entry of the men with the broom [AAP's election symbol], might just make our democracy more vibrant. Also, arrival of new party, forces the existing political parties to introspect and improve their functioning as well. In this context, one should welcome the party's presence on the election scene.

Old posts on this blog:

1. The aspirations of minority community and the party's failure. Congress & Muslims
2. BJP's failure in getting Muslim support. BJP and Muslims

Reasons why Opinion polls can go horribly wrong in predicting election results in India

It is quite easy to make a prediction about results of the election. But the chances that it will come true are little. There are a host of reasons.

First, I will talk about the constituency I live. Here most of the upper caste and middle class population seem to be supporting BJP.

This was before the declaration of candidates. Once the candidate gets declared, the first shocker comes.


They are all speaking the same thing but they won't vote as per their claims of support. The biggest population among Upper Castes* here is that of Brahmins and there is visible [very strong] discontent that neither BJP nor Congress now have any statewide Brahmin leader.

Caste-affect, Candidate-affect

So when Congress fields a Brahmin, suddenly you get to know that the mood has changed. The Brahmins would vote for him, despite supporting BJP or the Chief Minister or the Prime Ministerial candidate. This is just one of the factors which Opinion Polls can't gauge.

Even many of the Muslims praise ruling BJP and its schemes apart from its success in keeping communal riots under check. But many of them would vote for other parties including Congress, Samajwadi Party (SP) and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP).

When a BSP fielded a Kayastha candidate, all the Kayasthas en-bloc voted for him, though the community in the area was otherwise solidly behind BJP. People in India are smart in a different way. They don't speak up. They are not like Americans who are openly liberal or democrat.

People don't often disclose their preference

Here, people hide, conceal, even lie. Sometimes the change of heart comes after declaration of candidate and sometimes just 24 hrs before the voting. Take another example. In Lok Sabha, the main fight was between BJP and Congress.

Even a day ago, the wind was blowing that certain caste groups or sections would vote for one party and the remaining for other. But what happened on the day of voting. Suddenly, the workers handling the booth management appeared anxious. 

From Congress camp, there were signs of worry. The BJP activists were now happy. Reason was that a third candidate, a Muslim who had been fielded on a BSP ticket, was cornering nearly 95,000 votes! In process, he wrecked the chances of Congress candidate.

Last-minute mobilization, local issues or anger against candidate

Who would have imagined it? He got Dalit votes and also Muslim votes. Neither Congress nor poll surveyors had sensed anything. It was not wave. It was last-minute decision. How it happened? It happens in Indian democracy.

Voter doesn't expect personal favour and has just one right. The ordinary man, poor know when to teach an 'arrogant' politician a lesson. They do it. The same happened in Uttar Pradesh polls. The pre-poll surveys said SP would get 140-150 seats but when results came, it had got 224 seats.

Now what's the margin of error? More than 50%. The BSP's voter in cities often says that he will vote for Congress or BJP. Similarly, SP's voter does it also though he may vote for SP. For two decades, the pro-urban bias is reason that these parties always get less seats in opinion polls.

Apart from this, local factors, the accessibility of politician and his really poor performance are reasons that committed party voter even goes against his heart, and votes against him. Further, polls are urban-centric. The surveys are mostly in cities.

Urban-rural divide, failure to take into account mood in far-flung areas 

In rural areas, situation is vastly different. In city, there may be good roads, power and even basic amenities. But do the pollsters go to rural areas and ask the voter. Far from going to villages, these pollsters don't even go to towns [qasbahs].

Majority of people still live in rural India. In such places, often anti-incumbency may work or may not. If the party and CM has done good, but MLA is seen as a man who only benefited his family or kin, there can a mobilisation among electorate to defeat him.

Otherwise, even wave against ruling party may not work, if legislator or Member of Parliament (MP) has done good job. In certain places, there is no road or even a bridge despite demand for five years. In this case, the MLA or MP has to face the anger, come what may the party or CM's goodwill is.

Yet another fact. TV channel walas may claim again and again that there mathematical formula is correct despite the small sample size of 5,000 or 30,000 [to predict mood of 10 million or 100 million], the reality is that in multi-cornered [4-5 candidates' fight], their mathematics just can't work.

When feedbacks forms are filled from selected localities or fudged

There is also making a passing remark that it was conducted by an agency [so that complete onus is not on channel] and that there is a margin of error. By the time elections get over, people don't remember what exactly were the numbers predicted by particular channel.

The so-called team used to get feedback also go the easy way. Many feedback forms are filled by themselves. That's the normal way how things happen. They go to closes places. A few main markets, a few colleges and on the basis of the trend, fill the remaining forms also.

These things happen across India. So when any TV channel tells you that they have done great work and that their opinion poll was perfect and reflects the situation on the ground, just take it with a pinch of salt. After all, we know it. Don't we!!!

So enjoy the Opinion polls. Do hear what the professional 'psephologists' have to say as these programmes are interesting. But don't believe them completely. Do keep a record and let's check when the electorate gives the verdict.

[*If there are 15% Upper Castes--majority among them being Brahmins, who are nearly 10%. Imagine, what the unexpected shift can do in a contest if a 'Sharma Ji' is fielded. That'll make a 20% difference in calculation. These local factors don't reflect in polls. The exit polls or opinion polls work when there is a clear wave, not otherwise]