Six best cartoons on BJP's defeat and grand alliance's victory in Bihar: Cartoonists' response to election result

While millions of words have been written on the electoral outcome of the Bihar Assembly poll and the analyses continue, the cartoonists and artists have said it with a few strokes of their pens and brushes.

See these five cartoons that describe the BJP's loss and Nitish Kumar-Lalu Yadav's JDU-RJD-Congress alliance's victory. Clearly, 'Cow and Pakistan' are part of every illustration as BJP had made them a poll issue.

Surendra's cartoon touches the topic of reservation too. Others are by Manjul, Satish Acharya, Shreyas Nevare. The penultimate cartoon was published in Punjab Kesri. All these cartoons are about the results, except the last, which was about the exit polls.

Reaction to Shahrukh Khan's statement exposed BJP leaders, their claims of 'tolerance': King Khan's courageous stand against intolerance in India

Shah Rukh Khan has taken a bold and courageous stand.

The star openly voiced his concern over the climate of intolerance that is prevalent in the country.

The stand is laudable as super stars in India generally refrain from taking positions--so that neither of the sides get angry.

This has been the age-old tradition in India. Bollywood personalities have rarely taken stand, even when there were major issues concerning the country.

Film stars are well aware that they have huge following and whatever they say would be lapped by media.

1. They don't want to upset any section of their fan base. Stars know that their fans come from all political parties and their anger may affect their movies' box office chances. Also, political parties can issue 'boycott star' diktats, which hurt producers-directors too.

2. But King Khan took the unprecedented step. Not only, he spoke about the intolerance, but also said that he supported the writers' move about returning awards, as a protest against the culture of intolerance and hate-speech under the present regime.

3. By any standards, this is praiseworthy. The reaction to his comment, exposed the flag-bearers of 'tolerance'. Immediately, Sangh brigade and BJP leaders were after Shahrukh Khan, who was now their Enemy Number One.

4. The BJP leaders who feel they own the country and can issue certificates of 'nationalism' and 'anti-nationalism' at the drop of the hat. BJP vice-president Kailash Vijayvargiya said that 'Khan's heart was in Pakistan'.

5. BJP MP Yogi Adityanath and Sadhvi Prachi, both notorious for hate speeches, also showed how much tolerant is the current regime. They also revealed their true character, their true sanskaar. Kudos, Shahrukh Khan.

You truly deserve to be called 'King Khan'. 

No courage to tackle right-wing: Does Congress have the guts to fight RSS, BJP?

Does the Congress have the guts, courage to fight RSS, BJP?  The answer is a clear, no.

United Progressive Alliance (UPA) was in power for ten  years, it could never crackdown on BJP.

The recent CBI raid on Himachal Pradesh's serving chief minister Virbhadra Singh's residence, is just an example.

It is well-known that without official 'go-ahead' from the Centre, such raids on a serving CM can't take place at all, in India. The agencies work under centre.

The raid shows how BJP manages to get agencies work for it. On the other hand, Congress was in power for 10 yrs, yet it could never get even a single tough action against Narendra Modi-led BJP government in Gujarat, then.

Even CBI officers who were probing Godhra case were known to be soft on Modi. When you run government, you have the power but you need to exercise it. 

Congress had neither the will, nor the courage to do it. 
BJP and RSS leaders were scared when right-wing terror modules were caught. 

Yet, it was Congress that seemed fearful to take action against Sangh leaders and NIA took years to even investigate and file charge-sheets. Convictions couldn't take place and BJP government took seat in Delhi. 

Now the case are being weakened. The Congress has always shown this kind of approach while dealing with the right-wing, and now it is facing existential crisis. Today, the result is that party is reduced to 40 seats.

If you have to fight RSS, show some courage. Will they learn now? No, it doesn't seem so. Congress doesn't have the courage and conviction to do it.

In Karnataka, it cowers in front of Ram Sene and other Hindutva groups.

In fact, either it is the communal situation in Mangalore in Karnataka or the ban on Sanatan Sanstha, it (Congress) has always been exposed. 

It can't take on right-wing forces and the right-wing elements that are active within the party. It is time for Rahul Gandhi and Congress to realise that there is no scope for such a party that functions in such a manner. 

Eyes on Muslim population in Bihar: Will 1.75 crore Muslims tilt the balance in 2015 Assembly election?

As the crucial election for Bihar assembly approaches, the focus is on the Muslim electorate in the state.

The question is will Bihar Muslims solidly support the Nitish Kumar-led JDU-RJD coalition.

Or will Asaduddin Owaisi's entry into the state would lead to polarisation on communal lines.

Owaisi has targeted Seemanchal, a backward region that has a huge Muslim population, for his rally.

MIM's entry has energised a section of Muslim youth. There is a chance that in Seemanchal, there will be an affect on JDU-RJD's prospects because of Majlis. The possibility is that it will not only divide Muslim but will also lead to consolidation of BJP's core vote?


Bihar has over 1.75 crore Muslims, accounting for 17% population in State

Bihar has the third highest population of Muslims in the country, after Uttar Pradesh (UP) and Bengal (in numbers, not percentage). While UP has over 4 crore Muslims and Bengal has 2.45 crore Muslims.

As per 2011 census, population of  Bihar was 10.41 crore. The percentage of Muslims as per the latest census (religious figures released only a few months ago), the percentage was around 16.9 (roughly 17).

Till now, it was believed that Muslims would vote en bloc for the RJD-JDU-Congress coalition.

Hence, it was felt that their vote would not be divided unlike past when minorities' votes were divided between Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad Yadav's Rashtriya Janata Dal.

But, jointly, JDU-RJD-Congress have a support of over 50% electorate--at least, on paper.

It gives them the edge, as reflected in opinion polls too. However, the coming few weeks would determine if the 'secular forces' would take off or lose steam.

The BJP campaign is led by none other than Prime Minister Narendra Modi. He is using his oratory and his tested skills to capture the imagination of the Biharis. A few more weeks and we will find out whom Bihar electorate hand over reins of the State.

AAP's victory in Delhi broke a psychological barrier: Cracking jokes, making fun of politicians is no longer blasphemy, even 'bhakts' are doing it finally

By Indscribe

Arvind Kejriwal-led Aam Aadmi Party's (AAP) victory has not just shattered the myth of Narendra Modi-Amit Shah team's invincibility but has also broken a psychological barrier.

People in cities, hundreds of kilometers away from Delhi, including many BJP supporters, are cracking jokes, laughing and seemed genuinely enjoying the landslide.

Perhaps, they are enjoying it like a great Indian tamasha or they are just happy seeing an underdog's victory. One can interpret differently but this was unthinkable for a long time.

In WhatsAPP groups, people complained that how even a slight criticism of Narendra Modi upset the rest and old friends would get angry, as if it was a sort of blasphemy.

Post February 10: Not just cartoons are being shared in social media and even in groups [Facebook, WhatsApp] dominated by the BJP supporters, the laughter is back. Even BJP supporters are sharing these jokes and very few are feeling offended anymore.

Congress sympathisers would often rue that 'they crack jokes about Pappu and his mother all the time but if we speak a word, we are cornered and old friends are ready to snap relationships'. 'Yeh ho kya gaya hai'. Yes something had happened to people.

Now, many even seem relieved. They include BJP supporters. Why? I get call from a childhood friend, with whom I had stopped discussing politics long ago, as I didn't want to ruin my friendship. He said, 'checks and balances were required in politics and it would do good for the BJP'.

This will help the party as they won't be complacent anymore and it would also be in the interest of the citizens as both parties would compete in doing good work. Hmm. Such pieces of wisdom are coming from all sides.

WHY THE SHOP OWNER IN THE CORNER IS LAUGHING?

The neighbourhood shopowner waved at me and I had to stop though I was in a hurry. He said, 'ha ha...kya karwa diya Dilli mein...badhiya ho gaya'. I knew, he was a BJP supporter, but why was he enjoying.

Why was he so happy that he felt like sharing it with others. Others were also receiving calls or discussing it. They may or may not like Kejriwal's win but seem to enjoy this 'unexpected thing'. This is in our psyche that we support underdog and naturally such a performance has flabbergasted everyone.

But the question is that why have we suddenly rediscovered the ability to laugh or crack jokes. Many of them will vote for BJP in their states but are right now, savouring the moment. Why they had stopped cracking and making fun of politicians?

This is like old times when after a victory in a cricket match, friends would call each other and discuss. The feeling of joy, when you want to share with others. 'Maza aa gaya yaar, kya kar diya'. There are many such examples since Tuesday.

THE POLARISATION THAT WAS ON SOCIAL MEDIA FOR A YEAR,

In fact, there was a hard polarisation--Modi walas and the rest. So you were a 'traitor' if you didn't love Modi. This sort of positioning can't go on for long. People were simply spellbound. In Jammu-Kashmir, Modi-Shah failed to form government though the BJP got lot of seats.

Now, Delhi has shattered the myth of Modi's invincibility. People realised that he couldn't bring black money or get things done magically, as promised. Yes, even Kejriwal would be put to scrutiny, now.

Modi government is to stay for four years. In fact, it may win states after states. But, at least, people are out of the phase. For long they acted like they were 'possessed'. They are back, being natural. It was a strange psychological barrier. And it has gone. 

Why Muslims don't want to vote for Congress, not even willing to consider party as second or third option?

(C) INDSCRIBE

After Congress' loss in Haryana and Maharashtra, which was not unexpected, a lot of things were analysed but an important aspect was not mentioned.

I don't see anyone discussing the trend of Muslims' voting pattern--not considering Congress even as second or third option. Did you notice the recent voting trend in Haryana? More than 52% Muslims voted for INLD, 27% to other parties and JUST 16% MUSLIMS voted for Congress in Haryana.

We will delve into the statistics, the trend, reasons and implications too. But do remember that this happened in Haryana, not a state like Maharashtra where Muslims have severe issues with Congress or UP-Bihar.

In states like Haryana, Rajasthan, MP, Karnataka, Himachal Pradesh, Muslims are considered traditional Congress voters. But if just one in six Muslims are voting for the Congress, it is not ordinary.

This is alarming for the party, as even after BJP's victory in Lok Sabha, and the supposed feeling among large sections that Muslims tend to vote for Congress to keep BJP away from power, the minorities didn't vote enthusiastically for Congress.

First, let's see the Muslim majority constituencies in Haryana, from where Muslim contestants got elected to the Assembly. The trend is same at all these seats. It seemed Muslims didn't want to vote for Congress, at all.

FEROZEPUR JHIRKA

In Ferozepur Jhirka, most of the Muslim electorate didn't even think of voting for Congress candidate, who faced the humiliation of coming fifth, after two independents who got more votes than him.

Imagine, this is not UP where there are many parties like SP, BSP, RLD, Peace Party, Ulema Council et al.

Still, such is the situation! INLD's Naseem Ahmed won the seat by securing 40,000 votes.

Independent M Khan came second with 37,000 votes, followed by another independent Aman Ahmed who got 18,000 votes. BJP's Alam too got 16,540 votes. Congress' Azad Mohammad got just 15,943 votes.

PUNAHANA

In Punahana, such was the disenchantment with Congress that its candidate was no where in the race. While Independent Raees Khan got 34,000 votes, INLD's M Ilyas came second with 31,000 votes.

Even BJP's Iqbal Bhai got double the number of votes secured by Congress' Muslim candidate. Iqbal got 25,135 votes while Congress' Subhan Khan got 12,809 votes to come fourth.

NUH

In Nuh, INLD's Zakir Hussain won the election.

He convincingy defeated the Congress candidate, getting more than double the votes polled by him.

Hussain got 64,000 votes whilge Congress' Aftab Ahmed secured merely 31,000 votes.

Clearly, this is a major trend. If it is happening in a state like Haryana, you can imagine, how serious is Muslims' disenchantment with Congress.

Also, we will discuss Maharashtra in later posts. But this is pan-Indian phenomenon. There are several reasons. The two seats to MIM in Maharashtra got excessive focus in the media.

Reality is Muslims will vote for anyone other than Congress--from INLD to SP-BSP, AAP [as in last Delhi elections] or even Independents. It is not about going for a Muslim party because of choice, but because of 'majboori'.

In the surrounding din [MIM win], the trends like the
heightened disenchantment of Muslims with Congress were not analysed properly.


What about Sachar panel, Caste-based reservation demand, prison population!

1. Muslims voted for any party or candidate other than Congress. For the last 10 years, UPA was in government, but did it act on Sachar panel's recommendations. Congress did nothing about the Communal violence bill.

2. The presidential ordinance that bars Muslim and Christian Dalits from reservations was enforced during Congress rule, and despite vehement protests and demands to bring these communities in the ambit of caste reservations, UPA didn't act in 10 years.

3. Did it do anything about the fact that more than 35% inmates in jails in Maharashtra were Muslim, a vast number among them, under-trial prisoners. It gave the impression that it is pro-Muslim, but it shied from taking any step that would be seen as 'appeasement'.

4. It fell in a 'secular trap'. Congress has lost Dalits in UP-Bihar-MP-Chhattisgarh and many other states. It also lost tribal vote. Muslims are now forced to vote for it in exceptional circumstances, only in a few states.

5. They don't at all think of the party in UP. However, Congress refuses to learn. It feels Muslims will keep on voting for it. It forgets that Muslims want nothing, just basic respect and a bit of listening and action on their just demands.

6. The most basic thing is to ensure that there is no communal riot and the expectation that government would take action against those involved in excesses, torture or violation of human rights. On the contrary, there are killings--firing on the chest, riots, and yet, no stern action.

CONGRESS-ruled states were WORSE than BJP-ruled STATES IN tackling COMMUNAL RIOTS, KILLINGS in last couple of years

7. Congress talks of Gujarat carnage, which Muslims haven't forgotten, but it easily forgets that in the last couple of years, the worst killings of Muslims took place during Congress regimes, which haven't been forgotten either.

8. Assam repeatedly burnt and the horrific killings in BTAD, led to nationwide outrage but Congress couldn't stop it timely. No action was taken against Chief Minister. The same had happened earlier in Gopalgarh killings in Rajasthan. No action was taken against CM.

CHECK THIS LINK: ASSAM riots 2010, more than 50 killed

9. In Maharashtra, the Dhule killings, were treated as non-issue by ruling Congress. Just that we can't forget. The issue of non-implementing Sri Krishna panel report of Mumbai riots, has been repeatedly mentioned on this blog.

10. Once again, I would have to say that the situation in Maharashtra was such that Congress' mis-rule have now prepared the Muslims for the worst situations. Jo hoga jhelengu but you go now. In 1992-93, the Mumbai riots were during Congress regime, not Sena-BJP rule.

Lastly, I am not at all a BJP fan. But if you [Congress] are sincere, do introspect, accept your failures and work to ensure for providing a life of safety and dignity to people, who vote to you to power. You feel Muslims have no option, because if they vote for non-Congress candidate, their vote will get wasted.

Ok, we will waste the vote, but won't give it to you*. That's perhaps, lot of us feel today. 

EARLIER POSTS ON THE SAME ISSUE

If you want to understand the context, the reasons for anger,desperation and disgust among Muslims, you should read these posts. 

1. Arrogant, Apathetic Congress bites the dust in Maharashtra

2. An Indian Muslim's letter to Congress leadership: I am not a BJP supporter but glad to see Congress lose

[Percent of Muslims who voted for Congress obtained through CSDS survey. Published in Indian Express.]
[*Congress will get vote when it acts like Congress, work on the ideology of a real centrist party, as per the aspirations of the early leaders. More on this later]

Muslim legislator's bill for ban on trade of cow bones and fat defeated by BJP in MP Assembly

It was a major embarassment for the BJP government in Madhya Pradesh Assembly. The lone Muslim legislator, Arif Aqueel, came up with a private bill for ban on trade of bones and fat of the cows.

This was not the first time when Aqueel has brought up the issue, as he has consistently spoken about condition of old cows and need for protection of cows, which is considered sacred in India.

Aqueel said that while cow is termed as 'gau mata' and given status of mother, old cows are left to die. Those involved in trade of bones and fat of cow, kill the bovines. He said that the trade should be banned and there must be proper system in place to hold last rites of cows on government expense.

While minister for Animal Husbandry Kusum Mehdale praised Aqueel and even suggested giving him an award for his concern, she refused to take any action in this regard. The speaker suggested that the bill could later be introduced, after there is talk with religious gurus.

But Aqueel didn't back down. He kept raising the issue in the house. The MLA who represents Bhopal North Assembly seat and has won five times from the constituency since 1989, said that BJP is expected to ban the trade.

Muslim MLA speaks for cow conservation, BJP opposes it!

"You have won because on your plank that you would work for conservaton of cow", he said.

The BJP legislators created uproar but Aqueel remained defiant and stood his ground.

Finally, the speaker decided to take voice vote. The BJP being majority in the house, the bill was defeated by 55 to 31 votes.

Interestingly, most newspapers didn't report this debate in the Vidhan Sabha, properly though two newspapers carried it in their online editions. Read the report in Hindi newspapers and a brief report in the Agency below.

1. Government in a fix over Aqueel's private bill seeking ban on trade of cow fat, bones
2. Govt didn't accept proposal for last rites of cows
3. Agency report on the same issue

BJP's rise in Indian politics: From 2 to 282 members of parliament (MPs) in 30 years

The Bharatiya Janata Party's (BJP) performance in the recent Lok Sabha election and its growth has been truly exceptional. More shocking is the fact that Congress has been reduced to less than 50 seats.

If you recall, in the 1984-85 elections, that were held soon after Indira Gandhi's assassination, Rajiv Gandhi, who was riding on the sympathy wave, had got a huge mandate. Congress had 426 members, while BJP had just 2 in the eighth Lok Sabha.

Who were these 2 BJP MPs who had won in the 1984 election? Dr AK Patel had won from Mehsana in Gujarat. The second BJP MP who had won during the Rajiv Gandhi wave was Chandupatla Janga Reddy, who had won from Hanamkonda in Andhra Pradesh.

Even Atal Bihari Vajpayee had lost in the election. In the parliament, Telugu Desam Party (TDP) was the main opposition to Congress. NTR's party had 30 members followed by CPI (M) that had 23, AIADMK (12), Independents (9), Akali Dal (7), AGP (7), CPI (6), Congress S (5), Lok Dal (4), Unattached (4).

The BJP was much behind, along with Kerala Cngress, DMK, Muslim League and the nominated, who were two each. But within a few years, Rajiv Gandhi's popularity saw a decline. The BJP began mobilising people in the name of Hindutva.

In the name of Hindutva

As Ayodhya movement gathered steam, Rajiv Gandhi took such steps that proved costly to the party. Either it was 'shilanyas' or the Shah Bano issue, both hurt the Congress in the long run. 'Mr Clean' VP Singh raised 'Bofors' issue successfully and BJP strength went up from 2 to 86.

The National Front-led by VP Singh came to power but ultimately the Ram Janmabhumi-Babri Masjid issue led to the fall of the government. Despite the communal frenzy, the BJP could not manage to form the government. Its reach was limited to North India then.

Steady rise in the nineties

Another reason was that Congress was still a sort of 'default party' to vote for, in most parts of the country. After that, the BJP improved its tally. But despite Atal Bihari Vajpayee at the helm, it could never cross 200. It hovered between 121 and 189.

Even in the beginning of 2013, the BJP appeared to be a divided house. But then Narendra Modi was chosen to lead the party and steadily the campaign picked up steam in later months. The result was astonishing as the party could a majority on its own.

This was only the second time when a non-Congress government managed to form government on its own. In 1977, after emergency, it was during the anti-Indira wave, that the Janata Party (JP) had managed to win over 300 seats. But even then, the Congress was a strong force with more than 150 seats in Lok Sabha.

Right-wing becomes the mainstream in India

Even before BJP's rise, there were right-wing parties but they were fringe players. Either it was Jan Sangh, the Ram Rajya Parishad or the Hindu Mahasabha, none of these political parties managed to capture the popular support.

Indian voter had other alternatives. It was only in the fourth and fifth Lok Sabha that Jana Sangh seemed to be emerging as a bigger group. Else, these parties remained on the margins of Indian polity. However, the Congress' failure led to the growth of BJP in the last three decades.

The Watershed 

But 2014 proved to be watershed, as decisive victory to BJP is another thing and the decimation of Congress is another aspect.

The party's dismal performance shows how Congress has failed to put forth its ideology and hasn't been able to connect with youths who seem to have less appeal in Congress' vision and are drifting towards the right-wing.

If it was just an exceptional election, then it's ok. But Congress can't afford to be complacent. No big state in India remains with the Congress, either in North or in the South.Is the BJP becoming the default party for a majority of Indians, especially, the youngsters! Congressmen have to draw lessons from this defeat. Will they?

READ POSTS

1. Muslims' disenchantment with Congress: "I am not a Congress supporter but glad at its loss"
2. Congress' failure to highlight UPA government's 'achievements'

Of Kolkata visits, Muslims and Bengali Bhadralok: Difference between Leftist government and Trinamool's rule in West Bengal

By Ather Farooqui

My first visit to West Bengal was in the year 1989. This was followed by subsequent tours in 2010 and 2014. Kolkata [Calcutta] was quite an intimidating town then.

The infrastructure had crumbled and there was a sense of  fear in the metropolis. It was tough to walk on the streets as there was no place on footpaths.

My visit was about collecting statistics about Urdu education. Hence, I met CPM
leader Salik Lakhnawi.

When I contested his opinion and said that CPM hasn't done anything for Urdu and told him that the class conflict between Bengali and non-Bengali was similar to the situation in Maharashtra, he told me that if someone else would have said it he would have been in jail for such a statement.

That was the end of the conversation as I left the tea in the middle and left the place. The visit in 2010 was short but travelling on the streets and passing by mohallas, one could see the poor condition of Muslims who were living in the Communist ruled state.

West Bengal hadn't moved ahead a bit and seemed to be stuck in time. But when in March 2014, I again went to West Bengal, it was an altogether different state. I was surprised to see that there was no sense of fear in the air.

Left leadership is not used to learning from its past mistakes. Anjuman Taraqqi Urdu Hind's branch is active here.

I found that there were issues about Urdu education but there was no unhappiness with regard to the State government.

Bengal's middle-class or the Bhadralok lives in a world of its own. The Telegraph is their favourite newspaper.

Comparatively, it gives much more prominence to international stories than local reports. This class still lives in the world in which Upper Class society of North India lived in till 1970s.

There is tremendous greenery in rural West Bengal. I travelled from Kolkata to Darjeeling via New Jalpaiguri, for ten days. No where I could see sign that CPM is a force here. There were party flags on very few houses.

In Darjeeling, GJM is the strong party that had supported Jaswant Singh in the last election, with the
hope that BJP would come to power. Unlike North India, in West  Bengal, one has to pass through extremely bad roads to reach the hill stations here.

There is huge tourism revenue generated but the money is not spent on infrastructure. As a result, there is a strong support for creating Gorkhaland state in West Bengal.

[This is a guest article. It was originally published in Roznama Sahara, a multi-edition Urdu newspaper. Ather Farooqui is secretary general of Anjuman Taraqqi-i-Urdu Hind]

Why was Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi so angry over Sabir Ali's induction in BJP!

After former Janata Dal (U) leader Sabir Ali joined BJP, there was a near-hysteric reaction from Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi.

Naqvi, who is the vice-president of the BJP, tweeted about Sabir Ali's 'terrorist' connection.

He inferred that if things continue this way, then Dawood [Ibrahim] may also be allowed to join the party.

It was surprising as Naqvi, 56, has rarely reacted with such intensity before. With his reaction, he publicly embarrassed the party too.

So what was the reason? Was it a feeling of insecurity that prompted him to target the party leadership for induction of Sabir Ali. Naqvi is the most prominent face of the Bharatiya Janta Party (BJP).

The party has had tremendous difficulty finding 'Muslim faces' in the past. That he belonged to UP, once the most polarised state during the Ram Mandir movement, was an advantage to him and the BJP too gave him enough importance.

When no Muslim leader worth his salt associated himself with it, Naqvi was a proud BJP worker.
Muslims openly expressed their dislike for the man who was in BJP when its leaders [Kalyan Singh, Vinay Katiyar, Uma Bharti] were more harsh on minorities and less 'polished' than today's BJP.

Once he managed to win from Rampur Loksabha constituency too. The second Muslim face, Shahnawaz Khan, who has represented Kishanganj (Bihar) in the Lok Sabha, is much junior. It is only a few years back that Najma Heptullah joined the party.

More Muslim leaders began joining the BJP. MJ Akbar is the latest entrant. For long, Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi enjoyed a unique position in the party. He was regarded and rewarded by the party. Even for the RSS, the dhoti-clad, Mukhtar, who often sported tilak on forehead, was quite close to the ideal Muslim as per their definition.

But now, with the purported Narendra Modi wave, and when there is a feeling that BJP may emerge as the largest party and form the government, everyone is flocking towards the party. Sabir Ali may not be a big leader but he is quite articulate, even speaks English and has a 'rustic charm', as certain BJP leaders said.

Also, Ali at least has some support among a section of Muslims in Bihar. Clearly, Naqvi must have felt insecure. For decades, he worked hard, faced all sort of criticism and condemnation, even abuses from members of the community, and when the party appears close to forming the government at the Centre, all these guys who have made no sacrifices, are joining the party & stealing the limelight!

They may also become contenders in the hierarchy, as senior office-bearers or even ministers. Isn't it unjust? A friend remarked, 'Mehnat kare Murgi, Anda Khaye faqir'. No wonder, Mukhtar was so much upset that he shot off the tweet. We do understand your pain, Mukhtar Bhai. We really do. Aap logo.n ka kya khyaal hai?

Salman Khan meets Narendra Modi, sets social media ablaze: Of rights, wrongs and expectations...

The moment reports about Bollywood star Salman Khan's meeting with Narendra Modi, started appearing on Tuesday afternoon, social networking sites were flooded with comments.

It was inferred that he had endorsed the latter for the post of PM. Khan didn't say directly about who should be the Prime Minister. 

But said that God would decide the best man and then also pointed at Modi, saying that "there is a good man standing amongst us". 

The middle-aged star also had lunch with Modi. The Gujarat chief minister also tweeted about his meeting with Salman. 

Many Muslims seemed upset with Khan, who had recently gone to Saifai despite criticism that while riot victims were denied relief, the Chief Minister was having fun with Bollywood actors. 

While Alia Bhatt, had apologised and her father Mahesh Bhatt said that it was the failure of his upbringing that she went to participate in the event. Khan had defended the decision then also. There were sarcastic comments from different sides and that how film stars can go anywhere to dance, if they are offered money. 

Now many of his fans are hurt. There are angry posts and even cartoons mocking Khan. Even in the post-partition era, the most idealistic stars who were staunch communists, didn't lead the kind of life which they propagated. 

Among stars, Salman Khan has a very strong appeal among Muslim youths. He is the person whose posters with skullcap on his head, are seen in Muslim localities. In coming days, there could be protests on the streets in different cities. 

The effigies may also be burnt. Perhaps, the fans, have a right, to be upset. But isn't it irrational to expect that you star will always be politically correct and always behave in accordance with your affiliations and expectations.

There were posts on Facebook that how could Salman Khan meet Modi? After 1992-93 Mumbai riots, who had stopped meeting Congress leaders or the then Chief Minister Sudhakar Rao Naik, though more people were killed in those riots than Gujarat 2002.

The billionaire stars act in politically correct manner just because they tend to avoid controversies. It is not about taking stand or not taking stand. Salman Khan's act may anger his Muslim fans, but it can also boost his image among his hardliner right-wing fans. 

The criticism is that if celebrities, especially, the Muslims, keep meeting Modi, then it will give credibility to the latter. May be, such things slowly and steadily have an impact. The fear among certain sections is that the anti-Modi stance will get diluted. 

Many 'secular Hindus' were also upset with his 'endorsement of Modi'. But why? If he is a Muslim he is supposed to be anti-Modi? There is no logic in it. Then, all Hindus should be pro-Modi. But the biggest opponents of Modi are Hindus, aren't they? 

Either we talk in terms of activism, legal fraternity, political class or police officers, majority of those opposing him are not Muslims. Similarly, to expect that Muslims are monolithic to such an extent that everybody is expected to act in the same manner is absurd.

Why should we expect that Salman Khan or any other celebrity will take a stand. There is no surprise. With general elections a few months from now, we will see such occurrences and 'controversies' on a regular basis.

Link:
1. Report on IBN about Salman Khan-Narendra Modi meet
2. Sudhakarrao Naik and Congress' role in Mumbai riots

Reasons why Opinion polls can go horribly wrong in predicting election results in India

It is quite easy to make a prediction about results of the election. But the chances that it will come true are little. There are a host of reasons.

First, I will talk about the constituency I live. Here most of the upper caste and middle class population seem to be supporting BJP.

This was before the declaration of candidates. Once the candidate gets declared, the first shocker comes.


They are all speaking the same thing but they won't vote as per their claims of support. The biggest population among Upper Castes* here is that of Brahmins and there is visible [very strong] discontent that neither BJP nor Congress now have any statewide Brahmin leader.

Caste-affect, Candidate-affect

So when Congress fields a Brahmin, suddenly you get to know that the mood has changed. The Brahmins would vote for him, despite supporting BJP or the Chief Minister or the Prime Ministerial candidate. This is just one of the factors which Opinion Polls can't gauge.

Even many of the Muslims praise ruling BJP and its schemes apart from its success in keeping communal riots under check. But many of them would vote for other parties including Congress, Samajwadi Party (SP) and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP).

When a BSP fielded a Kayastha candidate, all the Kayasthas en-bloc voted for him, though the community in the area was otherwise solidly behind BJP. People in India are smart in a different way. They don't speak up. They are not like Americans who are openly liberal or democrat.

People don't often disclose their preference

Here, people hide, conceal, even lie. Sometimes the change of heart comes after declaration of candidate and sometimes just 24 hrs before the voting. Take another example. In Lok Sabha, the main fight was between BJP and Congress.

Even a day ago, the wind was blowing that certain caste groups or sections would vote for one party and the remaining for other. But what happened on the day of voting. Suddenly, the workers handling the booth management appeared anxious. 

From Congress camp, there were signs of worry. The BJP activists were now happy. Reason was that a third candidate, a Muslim who had been fielded on a BSP ticket, was cornering nearly 95,000 votes! In process, he wrecked the chances of Congress candidate.

Last-minute mobilization, local issues or anger against candidate

Who would have imagined it? He got Dalit votes and also Muslim votes. Neither Congress nor poll surveyors had sensed anything. It was not wave. It was last-minute decision. How it happened? It happens in Indian democracy.

Voter doesn't expect personal favour and has just one right. The ordinary man, poor know when to teach an 'arrogant' politician a lesson. They do it. The same happened in Uttar Pradesh polls. The pre-poll surveys said SP would get 140-150 seats but when results came, it had got 224 seats.

Now what's the margin of error? More than 50%. The BSP's voter in cities often says that he will vote for Congress or BJP. Similarly, SP's voter does it also though he may vote for SP. For two decades, the pro-urban bias is reason that these parties always get less seats in opinion polls.

Apart from this, local factors, the accessibility of politician and his really poor performance are reasons that committed party voter even goes against his heart, and votes against him. Further, polls are urban-centric. The surveys are mostly in cities.

Urban-rural divide, failure to take into account mood in far-flung areas 

In rural areas, situation is vastly different. In city, there may be good roads, power and even basic amenities. But do the pollsters go to rural areas and ask the voter. Far from going to villages, these pollsters don't even go to towns [qasbahs].

Majority of people still live in rural India. In such places, often anti-incumbency may work or may not. If the party and CM has done good, but MLA is seen as a man who only benefited his family or kin, there can a mobilisation among electorate to defeat him.

Otherwise, even wave against ruling party may not work, if legislator or Member of Parliament (MP) has done good job. In certain places, there is no road or even a bridge despite demand for five years. In this case, the MLA or MP has to face the anger, come what may the party or CM's goodwill is.

Yet another fact. TV channel walas may claim again and again that there mathematical formula is correct despite the small sample size of 5,000 or 30,000 [to predict mood of 10 million or 100 million], the reality is that in multi-cornered [4-5 candidates' fight], their mathematics just can't work.

When feedbacks forms are filled from selected localities or fudged

There is also making a passing remark that it was conducted by an agency [so that complete onus is not on channel] and that there is a margin of error. By the time elections get over, people don't remember what exactly were the numbers predicted by particular channel.

The so-called team used to get feedback also go the easy way. Many feedback forms are filled by themselves. That's the normal way how things happen. They go to closes places. A few main markets, a few colleges and on the basis of the trend, fill the remaining forms also.

These things happen across India. So when any TV channel tells you that they have done great work and that their opinion poll was perfect and reflects the situation on the ground, just take it with a pinch of salt. After all, we know it. Don't we!!!

So enjoy the Opinion polls. Do hear what the professional 'psephologists' have to say as these programmes are interesting. But don't believe them completely. Do keep a record and let's check when the electorate gives the verdict.

[*If there are 15% Upper Castes--majority among them being Brahmins, who are nearly 10%. Imagine, what the unexpected shift can do in a contest if a 'Sharma Ji' is fielded. That'll make a 20% difference in calculation. These local factors don't reflect in polls. The exit polls or opinion polls work when there is a clear wave, not otherwise]

RSS wants Hindus to have more children: Shouldn't Sangh leaders take up real issues like female foeticide rather than perpetuating old myths?

Once again the Rashtriya Swayamsewak Sangh [RSS] has urged Hindus that more children should be produced, in order to check the demographic imbalance.

Did anyone call it fatwa or a diktat? How many TV channels found RSS joint secretary Dattatreya Hosbale's comments as controversial?

Has there been strong criticism on editorial pages in mainstream newspapers? This is not the first time that RSS leaders have said that Hindus need to produce more kids.

For them, Hindus are the 'victim'. The bogey of 'Muslim population rise' or 'Ham Panch-Hamare Pachchis' are used by RSS to portray Muslims in bad light.

Not only that the statement aims at driving wedge among religious communities, the fact is that it is truly regressive in nature.

Shouldn't RSS turn itself into a forward looking organisation?

The reason is that if RSS been a forward looking organisation, it would stop looking at things from the Hindu Vs Muslim. In that case it should have urged middle-class Indians [mostly Hindus] to stop female foeticide [and infanticide] to control the fascination for 'baby boy'.

It is this gender imbalance that is really threatening Hinduism [and India]. There are vast regions where there are less than 800 girls for 1,000 boys. Even the upper class and middle-class want the 'baby boy'. If the first child is a girl, many go for second, in the hope to have a boy.

This 'sickness' needs to be fought. Strangely, RSS leaders never tell their followers how Hinduism has been growing much faster over the last century in the world. While Islam has grown fast after 1900, overall population of Hindus in the world, has also gone up significantly, even as Christianity and other religions have now lost the pace.

As far as rise in Muslim population in India is concerned, it is not a very unusual phenomenon. The minority [Muslim] rate of growth is quite close to Dalits. Clearly, economic reasons and social backwardness are the cause behind the high birthrate.

Muslim growth rate in Kerala, Tamil Nadu much less than in UP, Bihar

In states like Tamil Nadu and Kerala, Muslims have a growth rate of much less than 20% per decade, which is less than the growth rate of Hindu population in India in many other states of North India.

UP and Bihar have overall bigger families. No wonder, fertility rates are higher among Muslims in these states.

Secondly, there is no open opposition to family planning among Muslims, and they have adopted it widely.

As Muslims go up on socio-economic indicators, they also tend to have smaller families, just like rest of the Indians.

As per 2001 census, the overall population grew by 21.5% in India in the previous decade. Muslim decadal population grew by a mere 13.7% in Tamil Nadu and 15.8% in Kerala [from 1991 to 2001].

These states have a higher Muslim literacy rate and here Muslims are financially better-off. In contrast, Hindu population increased by 28.7% in Punjab, 24.7% in Karnataka and 23.4% in Bihar.

How do you explain that? Now there will be critics who would say that if Muslims grew by 13.7% in Tamil Nadu in the decade, the decennial Hindu growth was just 11%.

The problem is that when the Hindu growth rate is seen, they don't take into account the growth rate of backwards and Dalits, whose population growth is comparable to Muslims.

For example, you can't expect to compare Iyers or Iyengars' decadal rise in population with Dalits or even Vanniyars. If you have to at all compare then do it with the socially upward Muslims. Else, consider Muslims also as a social group and then look at them with their growth rate.

The right comparison would be Muslim population rise vis-a-vis increase in population of social groups that have similar earning, living conditions and socio-economic backwardness.Statistics clearly reveal that Muslim population rate is falling in India and would stabilise in a few decades.

The difference of population growth rates is narrowing down fast. Far from becoming majority or even 25%, it will take centuries before they even reach the figure of 20% in India.

Perpetuating old myths: Fact is that Muslims are least polygamous in India

For decades, right-wing groups have made similar claims. Take for example, the charge of polygamy. Census clearly reveals that the practice of polygamy was highest among Adivasis, Jains, Buddhists and Hindus. Muslims came last as far as prevalence of the practice was concerned.

See LINK and LINK. This is despite the fact that polygamy is legal for Muslims and unlawful for Hindus. But this is not highlighted or even mentioned. Tell a lie a thousand times and people tend to believe it. Senior RSS and BJP leaders often make attacks on Muslims about being more polygamous.

In December 2005, the then RSS chief [sarsanghchalak] KS Sudharshan had also urged the majority community in a similar manner. He said that 3-4 children per couple would keep the 'changing religious demography' in control.

Just imagine had any other religious community [like a Muslim cleric from Nadwatul Ulema or Deoband] made such a statement, what would have happened?

There would have been wide condemnation, politicians and activists gunning for him and effigies burnt.

TV channels would have continued debates for days. But in the case of RSS, it was simply ignored even though the 'cultural organisation' has huge impact and has a cadre strength of tens of lakhs.

If the RSS leaders take up real issues that affect the nation, they would be taken more seriously. It may also strike chord with the young generation. However, they remain stuck in regressive rhetoric. Sangh also needs to look at itself.

Shouldn't the swayam-sevaks [volunteers] shun celibacy and marry, in order to increase the numbers of Hindus? Though its their personal issue but I wrote about it as they often find faults with Muslims. Mustn't they also take the blame? Had the RSS workers for several generations [who have been observing celibacy] married and had families, then there would have been lakhs of more Hindus.

Link: Dattatreya Hosbale exhorts Hindus to have more children

Narendra Modi tweets in Urdu but will he stop closure of Urdu schools in Gujarat

The Chief Minister of Gujarat, Narendra Modi, has recently begun tweeting in Urdu also.

It's a welcome step that the BJP's prime ministerial candidate understands the importance of the language that gave  slogans like Inquilab Zindabad, which stirred the nation during the freedom movement.

Though there are many Congress leaders on Twitter, I don't think anyone tweets in Urdu. Is it due to electoral conditions? May be, after all, its natural for politicians to do that. But if the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) CM tweets in Urdu, he should also give attention to the plight of Urdu schools in his state.

Dozens of Urdu medium schools in Ahmedabad have closed down in the last five years alone. Forget, opening of new schools. The existing ones are being merged into other schools. For the Urdu medium students, that's a bad situation.

At many places, students who have completed high school, have no place for higher studies. The situation is no better in Surat. The situation in Vadodara is even worse. Permission is not being granted to open new schools or even upgrading of the existing schools.

Yes, we are told that everyone wants to move on and stop talking of 'past'. Surely, but can you kindly ensure that Muslim boys and girls could get education. These are students who don't go to madarsas but with closure of schools, they have less options. In Muslim dominated pockets, there aren't new government schools coming up.

I am not talking about the lack of funds to Urdu Sahitya Academy in Gujarat or for financial help for Urdu litterateurs. One hopes that just when Chief Minister [or his office] tweets in Urdu, they will also be sensitive towards the condition of Urdu medium schools in the state.

Saving the surviving Urdu schools and providing them the basic amenities will be a step in the right direction. It will also send a good message about development and forward looking approach. Won't it? Will someone reflect over it!

Link to Tanvir A Siddiqui's report about Urdu schools closing down in Ahmedabad. READ

When LK Advani is seen as an inclusive and 'secular' leader in India

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It was really unthinkable once that Lal Kishenchand Advani would one day be described as an 'inclusive' politician and even seen as secular.

But the unthinkable has happened in Indian politics in just over two decades. LK Advani, the man whose chariot, had stoked communal flames across the length and breadth of the country, is today being viewed as a 'moderate person'.

Not just moderate but a secular person. Ironical indeed. Is it because of his old age and the tradition that as a person gets older, we treat him with more respect?

Is it because Rath Yatra took place a quarter century ago, when it needed Newstrack cassettes to be seen on Video Recorders [VCRs]. But Gujarat carnage occurred just a decade ago and at a time when electronic media was well established and we saw it live.

Is it just about the number of years? Communal speeches, violence or riots can't be washed away in this manner. Can they be? We talk of Gujarat riots, but after Advani's rath yatra and the Babri Masjid demolition, the hatred spread across India had led to communal violence in dozens of cities.

Remember, the Surat riots of 1992-93. The scale and magnitude was no less than Ahmedabad. The stories of killings and attacks on women were no less horrific. Or the riots in towns across India then. May be it is something like the old Akbar-Birbal story?  You shorten a line by drawing a longer one adjacent to it.

So as Modi emerged as a hardliner, Advani's Hindutva-wadi hawkish image got diluted. Though he himself made a conscious effort to dilute it, as he realised how Atal Bihari Vajpayee, who had remained silent for several years during the Ram Mandir era, had emerged from nowhere to take up the reins of BJP, pushing Advani in the background.

Going to Pakistan, paying respects to the mausoleum of Jinnah, is something that has no resonance with Indian Muslims.

But, he perhaps, thought that it would add to his stature and turn him into a 'statesman' figure.

Media has also been quite charitable towards him all these years.

Advani, A Secular?

I remember very well how LK Advani's speeches turned North India into a communal cauldron in an era when there was no such religious conflict. Whichever town his 'chariot' passed, it left behind a trail of either clashes or increased communalism.

It was during the Rath Yatra, that local-level politicians in their bid to outperform Advani would become even more virulent. It was the impact of his 'rath yatra' that BJP leaders openly addressed all Muslims ass 'Babar ki Aulad' in public spaces.

All that happened long ago! Still, not as distant past. It happened many years after the 1984 anti-Sikh riots. Advani's speeches of the era are not telecast now. Besides, he was sharp enough to know how much to say, and  where to stop, so that Singhals, Uma Bhartis, Giri Raj Kishors, Vinay Katiyars, Ritambharas can take it forward from there.

Advani has also been a master of fllip-flop. He went on describe December 6, 1992 as the saddest day of his life. Imagine! From 1986 to 2013, we have seen Advani's urge to lead BJP to a victory in Lok Sabha elections and the wish to achieve get wider acceptability and in turn become Prime Minister.

Now he is seemingly 'secular' but alas, he is out of favour with the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS). Let's wait for a few more months. Advani is clearly nursing the ambition that in case of coalition, he would be chosen as the leader of NDA. So are we yet to witness 'secular' Advani's last hurrah?