Can the BJP double its existing tally in Lok Sabha to form next government in 2014?

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) currently has 116 seats in the Parliament. It needs to double its tally in order to form the next government at the centre.

The party says that Narendra Modi wave will help it reach the magic figure of 272, which is required for a simple majority in the Lok Sabha.

If the party gets anything around 220-230, it can hope to form the government with the help of its allies, under the banner of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA).

Barely a week from now, it will be clear if the party is able to reach the figure. Do we need to even discuss it when just a few days remain before result of the 2014 lok sabha elections is out.

In fact, the BJP's publicity blitz makes it appear as if 272 will be easily attainable for the BJP (even without allies). However, it is easier said than done.While it is true that there is disenchantment with the Congress-led UPA government.

But getting almost double the seats is no mean task for the BJP either. From Gujarat, Rajasthan, MP and Chhattisgarh, the party is likely to get maximum seats. In Chhattisgarh, it will not be as one-sided though because the difference in Congress and BJP vote is quite narrow.

Apart from North India, Maharashtra will also be crucial

The BJP hopes to do better in Maharashtra due to anti-Congress mood apart from getting substantial seats in Karnataka. It can't expect too much from South India despite its new coalitions in Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh.

In Kerala and West Bengal, a couple of wins would not help much. Now, what it needs is a good tally from UP and Bihar. BJP is hoping 50-55 seats from UP. Even most opinion polls and surveys show that BJP has gained ground due to 'Modi wave'.

But the ground situation isn't as simple. BSP and SP have their core vote and it is more on the expense of Congress that BJP will gain. Can the BJP get 30-35 seats in UP? Even this number is not easy to achieve. In Bihar, it will be even more difficult.

In last Lok Sabha election, BJP had got most seats from Karnataka, Bihar

A state-wide analysis shows that in 2009 general election, BJP had got 19 seats from Karnataka. Can the party get as many seats again from the state? Secondly, NDA had performed too well in Bihar and had got 32 seats.

While JDU got 12, BJP had 20 MPs from Bihar. In Gujarat, Orissa and MP, the BJP may do slightly better compared to last election. But in Punjab, BJP-Akali Dal are not in an advantageous situation this time. AAP is a factor here.

UP had just 10 BJP MPs in the outgoing Lok Sabha and in this state BJP hopes to improve its figure. In Bihar, after the split with JDU, the vote share of  BJP has come down. Can the 'wave' be so strong that it would compensate for it?

BJP needs an extraordinary performance in the election

Reports suggest Lalu Yadav-led RJD's resurgence in the state. If the BJP manages to reach 215-225, it will be an overall gain of 100-110 seats compared to 2009 elections. This will also be extraordinary performance.

The NDA can then stake its claim to form government, as the single biggest coalition. Rahul Gandhi has said that if Congress doesn't get adequate number of seats, his party would sit in opposition, rather than support a third front government.

This is pre-results talk and things can change later. The BJP campaign [and RSS] suggests that if the party doesn't get majority on its own and has to depend on alliance partners, even then it will not compromise on anyone, except, Narendra Modi, to be its PM candidate.

The election has been fought on his name and it is definitely because him that the BJP cadre got energised. Let's see how far he takes the BJP from the present status [116 MPs]. Everyone is waiting for May 16, the day when EVMs will tell us, whom the Indian electorate has chosen to govern us. 

Constituency for minority candidates : Just 2.5% minority votes, yet Betul was once considered a safe seat for Muslims in Lok Sabha

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In certain states in India, especially, Madhya Pradesh (MP), Gujarat, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, it has become nearly impossible now for Muslims to win Lok Sabha election.

But for decades, Betul, a constituency in central India, that has barely 2.5% minorities elected candidates belonging to the minority communities.

In fact, it had been labelled as a minority seat. For decades, not just winners but opposition candidates here were also Muslims. The constituency came into existence in 1967.

In the first two elections, veteran Congress leader, late NKP Salve, a Christian, won from here on Congress ticket. After his victories in 1967 and 1971,  he lost the election from here in 1977. Subhash Ahuja who contested on Lok Dal ticket, had won that year.

In the year 1980, Congress strongman from Bhopal, Ghufran-e-Azam contested from Betul and got elected from here. He defeated Bharatiya Jana Sangh (BJS) candidate Subhash Chand Ahuja by nearly 30,000 votes.

In the next election, in the year 1984, former Olympian [hockey player] Aslam Sher Khan won from this constituency. He fought on Congress ticket and defeated independent candidate MN Buch, a retired bureaucrat, by a margin of 37.950 votes.

Five years later, yet another famous Muslim leader Arif Beg [recalled for his 'mere mulk ke maaliko' address for the crowd in election rallies], contested from here. Beg was fielded by the BJP. It was the era of Ram Mandir movement.

Beg defeated Congress' Aslam Sher Khan by over 40,000 votes. But two years later, Aslam Sher Khan avenged his defeat. In 1991 election, Aslam Sher Khan, who fought on Congress ticket, defeated BJP's Arif Beg, by 22,733 votes.

In 1996, BJP gave ticket to Vijay Khandelwal, who defeated Aslam Sher Khan by a huge margin. It was post-1992 era, communal polarisation had begun in MP, and it was becoming nearly impossible for Muslims to win even in the Assembly elections.

Congress tried a minority candidate from here, just once, after this defeat. In 1999, it gave ticket to Ghufran Azam. he secured over 2 lakh votes (nearly 39%) but lost by a margin of 64,000 votes. Since t hen, neither BJP nor Congress fielded a minority candidate.

But the seat is an example o.f how minority candidates have won [and can win] from constituencies where they have very small concentration. This is really the beauty of Indian democracy. The overwhelming majority of Hindus voted for Muslims at this seat and helped launch the political career of the Muslim politicians.

In 32 years, there were ten elections here. Of the 20 candidates who won and lost here, 12 were from minority community. Often the winner and loser were both Muslim, despite the fact that minority communities are barely 2.5% of the population in this constituency.

Don't blame parties alone for failing to field candidates

It is easy to blame parties for not giving proper representation. But the fact is that there are few leaders worthy of ticket in the region. The first and most basic job of a a politician is to remain active in their area.

If they work in the constituency and nurture it, people will remember them and even reward them. However, they expect that the party would give ticket and this should be enough for them to sail through. And those who lose once, just leave the area--going to State capital or national capital, forgetting the electorate.

Times have changed, they must realise.