By Adnan Khan
Two recent events took place which received some global media atten�tion and would indi�cate ISIS is expand�ing its capa�bil�i�ties and reach. On 12 Jan�u�ary 2015 as Barack Obama gave a speech in Wash�ing�ton on cybersecurity,[1] as he was speak�ing, ISIS suc�cess�fully hacked the US Cen�tral Com�mands twit�ter account in an act of cyber Jihad.[2] On 14 Jan�u�ary 2015 Saudi Ara�bia revealed details of its 600-mile-long �Great Wall,� to sep�a�rate the coun�try from Iraq. With much of the Saudi-Iraq bor�der under the con�trol of ISIS the buffer zone will con�sist of five lay�ers of fenc�ing with watch tow�ers, night-vision cam�eras and radar cameras.[3] All of this was after a sui�cide bomb�ing and gun attack killed two Saudi bor�der guards and their com�mand�ing offi�cer on 5 Jan�u�ary 2015, which the King�dom con�sid�ered the first attack by ISIS on Saudi Arabia.[4] It has now been over 6 months since the ISIS announce�ment of the Caliphate and whilst they have expanded their ter�ri�to�r�ial con�trol and faced-off against the other rebel groups, a closer exam�i�na�tion of ISISsuc�cess reveals much of it is a mirage in the desert.
ISIS�s pres�ence in Syria can be traced offi�cially to April 2013 when Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi declared the merger between his group in Iraq and Jab�hut al-Nusra in Syria. The rejec�tion of this by al-Nusra leader Muhammed Joulani led to the cre�ation of ISIS which entered into a pro�tracted bat�tle with al-Nusra and every other rebel group in Syria seiz�ing ter�ri�tory from them. Today, most of the Iraqi-Syrian bor�der is in ISIShands and much of the north of the coun�try from Deir ar Zour to ar-Raqqa gov�er�norate and Aleppo gov�er�norate is under ISIS con�trol � although Aleppo is still being con�tested. Whilst this ter�ri�tory is vast, likely to be in the range of 400 square miles it is of lit�tle str
ate�gic impor�tance. Ar-Raqqah to Mosul � the tra�di�tional region of al-Jazirah is of lit�tle eco�nomic, his�tor�i�cal or geopo�lit�i�cal weight. It is a desert heart�land and what agri�cul�tural poten�tial is there is usu�ally affected by drought and as a result the pop�u�la�tion in this area of Syria has his�tor�i�cally been extremely small. Deir al-Zour and Ar-Raqqah, even prior to the upris�ing played only a minor role in Syr�ian pol�i�tics. Syria�s core or heart�land is in the West of the coun�try � the cor�ri�dor run�ning from Aleppo in the north to Dam�as�cus in the South. This is why Syria�s his�toric polit�i�cal and eco�nomic cen�tres remain the cities of, Aleppo, Hama, Homs, Dam�as�cus and Deraa. Despite gain�ing most of the global media head�lines ISIS controls none of the key ter�ri�tory in Syria.
ate�gic impor�tance. Ar-Raqqah to Mosul � the tra�di�tional region of al-Jazirah is of lit�tle eco�nomic, his�tor�i�cal or geopo�lit�i�cal weight. It is a desert heart�land and what agri�cul�tural poten�tial is there is usu�ally affected by drought and as a result the pop�u�la�tion in this area of Syria has his�tor�i�cally been extremely small. Deir al-Zour and Ar-Raqqah, even prior to the upris�ing played only a minor role in Syr�ian pol�i�tics. Syria�s core or heart�land is in the West of the coun�try � the cor�ri�dor run�ning from Aleppo in the north to Dam�as�cus in the South. This is why Syria�s his�toric polit�i�cal and eco�nomic cen�tres remain the cities of, Aleppo, Hama, Homs, Dam�as�cus and Deraa. Despite gain�ing most of the global media head�lines ISIS controls none of the key ter�ri�tory in Syria.ISIS shot to fame due to their rapid con�quest of Iraq�s largest city after Bagh�dad, Mosul, in June 2014. This was a sig�nif�i�cant vic�tory for ISIS as it defeated two army divi�sions that were sta�tioned in Mosul. This was around 30,000 troops, there were also an addi�tional 10,000 fed�eral police and 30,000 local police and likely, some Iran�ian Quds Force offi�cers. The Iraqi army had tanks, planes, and Amer�i�can train�ing. ISIS had never fielded a tank or a plane. The Iraqi army in real�ity was inept, incom�pe�tent, full of nepo�tism and cor�rup�tion and was really com�posed of vol�un�teers look�ing for a reg�u�lar salary than a fight�ing forces secur�ing the coun�try. The mil�i�tary was led by an even more cor�rupt polit�i�cal class and sec�tar�ian lead�ers more inter�ested in pre�serv�ing their own office rather than defend�ing the coun�try. The capit�u�la�tion of the Iraqi army proves their dire state rather than ISIS capa�bil�ity. There i
s also sig�nif�i�cant evi�dence from many Iraqi com�man�ders, who were in Mosul at the time of the attack, that they were ordered to leave the city and to leave their equip�ment behind. This deci�sion to aban�don Mosul could only have come from Malaki him�self. This explains why ISIShas strug�gled after months of fight�ing in Kobani. A town only a tiny frac�tion of Mosul. Despite mainly fac�ing Kur�dish fight�ers and other fight�ers who reside in the town ISIS has been los�ing ground in this north�ern town on the bor�der with Turkey. All this has taken place despite ISIS com�man�der Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi send�ing thou�sands of fight�ers to Kobani, lead�ing many to call Kobani ISIS�s Stal�in�grad.
s also sig�nif�i�cant evi�dence from many Iraqi com�man�ders, who were in Mosul at the time of the attack, that they were ordered to leave the city and to leave their equip�ment behind. This deci�sion to aban�don Mosul could only have come from Malaki him�self. This explains why ISIShas strug�gled after months of fight�ing in Kobani. A town only a tiny frac�tion of Mosul. Despite mainly fac�ing Kur�dish fight�ers and other fight�ers who reside in the town ISIS has been los�ing ground in this north�ern town on the bor�der with Turkey. All this has taken place despite ISIS com�man�der Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi send�ing thou�sands of fight�ers to Kobani, lead�ing many to call Kobani ISIS�s Stal�in�grad.On the global scene ISIS has con�firmed all the stereo�types many have of an Islamic state. Behead�ings, killings, mur�ders, kid�nap�pings, slav�ery, lack of jus�tice, dic�ta�tor�ship and poverty are the images the world has of the ISIS Caliphate. Despite the slick use of social media, none of this has show�cased the capa�bil�i�ties of a state or why the Mus�lims around the world should immi�grate to the Caliphate. There is no doubt ISIS is com�posed skilled mul�ti�me�dia per�son�nel and acoustics engi�neers, but what is needed to develop a mod�ern state is engi�neers and skills to develop indus�try, weapons and infra�struc�ture. ISIS for the moment is sur�viv�ing on loot from Mosul and as a result can shoot down a mil�i�tary jet or counter a tank, but tack�ling an entire squadron or per�ma�nently neu�tral�is�ing air-sorties against a con�ven�tional army that can con�stantly pro�duce mil�i�tary plat�form is another mat�ter. This is why ISIS can do noth�ing against US air attacks sup�ported by the other air forces in the region as they lack com�plete author�ity over ter�ri�tory they pur�port to con�trol. ISIS con�sists of a loose coali�tion of 20 year olds, for�mer Ba�athists and many for�eign�ers and is at most an insur�gent force with lit�tle capa�bil�ity in run�ning a state.
Anec�do�tal reports sug�gest food, med�i�cine and other essen�tial goods are in scarce sup�ply and that the res�i�dents of cities such as Raqaa in Syria and Mosul in Iraq are becom�ing unhappy with the many taxes the Islamic State has levied to sup�port its econ�omy. With very lit�tle other eco�nomic activ�ity, shak�ing down the local pop�u�la�tion for taxes can work only for so long until peo�ple are bled dry.[5] ISIS has turned most of Iraq and much of Syria into another North Korea, iso�lated in the world and not pre�sent�ing any pos�i�tive image of the Caliphate. ISIS ter�ri�to�ries, which are mostly arable desert, are not con�ducive for eco�nomic devel�op�ment and it would be impos�si�ble to estab�lish a state upon it in order to sur�vive. A mod�ern nation will need to engage in inter�na�tional trade to sur�vive. This requires mutual recog�ni�tion between �states� and some inter�na�tional cred�i�bil�ity. Basic equip�ment such as an MRI machine for a Mosul hos�pi�tal or chem�i�cals to treat water, as well as med�ical drugs or the infra�struc�ture for air trans�port requires inter�na�tional rela�tions. The nations that pro�duce such equip�ment and mate�ri�als can�not and will not sell to ISIS, turn�ing them into another North Korea. This is a huge blow to the �Islamic project� and its credibility.
ISIS is con�sid�ered by many as the most suc�cess�ful Jihadi group that con�trols large sec�tions of Syria and Iraq. Although it has accom�plished a lot over the past 6 months, jihadi emi�rates have gen�er�ally been rel�a�tively short-lived. ISIS has grown on the ground in Iraq and Syria, both by absorb�ing other groups and by recruit�ing new local and for�eign fight�ers. It has how�ever not expanded beyond its core areas of oper�a�tion. The organisation�s growth out�side its core area has only been when other groups rebranded them�selves. Only a lim�ited num�ber of groups that have declared alle�giance to ISIS, these groups have gen�er�ally been splin�ters off exist�ing jihadi groups rather than new enti�ties. ISIS sup�port�ers around the world have gen�er�ally been online and a few pseudo-clerics with lit�tle cred�i�bil�ity. After 6 months ISIS pos�sesses sub�stan�tial ter�ri�tory but lit�tle else that is needed to func�tion as a mod�ern state.
[2] http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/jan/12/us-central-command-twitter-account-hacked-isis-cyber-attack?view=mobile#opt-in-message
[3] http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2912334/The-Great-Wall-Saudi-Arabia-Kingdom-plans-build-600-mile-barrier-Jordan-Kuwait-response-threat-invasion-ISIS.html
[4] http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2898360/Three-Saudi-soldiers-shot-dead-Iraqi-border-attack-country-joined-coalition-launching-airstrikes-against-Islamic-State.html
[5] Jihadism in 2014: Assess�ing the Islamic State, Strat�for, Jan�u�ary 8 2015,http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/jihadism-2014-assessing-islamic-state#axzz3PIigQKUg
No comments:
Post a Comment